Saturday 26th April 2014
15:00
Hawthornes
West Bromwich Albion vs West Ham United
Analysis
Save our season! Must win game! 6 pointer!
I don't think this game is as important as some are making out, because I don't think we will be relegated even if we lose our remaining three games. That said, winning this would make life a little more comfortable going into our final two fixtures.
Back in December, we played out probably our most entertaining game of the season (with the exception of our 3-0 win at White Hart Lane), a three all draw at the Boleyn. Despite the fact that two of West Brom's last three games at the Hawthornes have resulted in the same scoreline, it seems rather unlikely that we'll see a similar result this weekend.
The Baggies have only won 3 of their 17 home league matches this season, have won just once at home since they beat Crystal Palace on the 2nd November, and have failed to win at home since the New Years Day defeat of Newcastle United.
If there was ever an away game that West Ham could expect to pick up points, this might just be it.
Key Player
Despite their poor season, West Brom have had a few stand out players this campaign.
Ben Foster's form between the sticks has led to calls for an England recall, Jonas Olsson has been as solid and dependable as ever at the heart of defence, James Morrison and Morgan Amalfitano have provided the occasional sparkle going forward, and youngster Saido Berahino has produced a number of high class performances in his debut Premier League season.
But the man who has really stood out to me is central midfielder Youssouf Mulumbu. The Congolese international is often at the heart of West Brom's play, acting as both a midfield destroyer, and a driving force in attacks.
In West Brom's away win at Swansea's Liberty Stadium in March, Mulumbu was everywhere. On that day, no West Brom player attempted more than his 57 passes. No Baggie won more tackles than his 5, made more interceptions than his 6, had more shots on goal than his 4, or touched the ball more than the 83 times the midfielder managed.
The image below shows Mulumbu's heat map from that game. What you can see, is that the Congolese will patrol all areas of the pitch, offering defensive protection in front of the back four, whilst also attacking with gusto - often down the right flank.
This is just a typical example of Mulumbu's performances this season.
Despite operating primarily as a holding midfielder, he has managed an impressive 17 key passes in his 33 appearances, bagging 2 assists along the way. He has also completed an impressive 77% of his 52 attempted take ons (1.6 attempted per game).
What is particularly impressive about Mulumbu, is that he doesn't often let his attacking adventures detract from his defensive work. Mulumbu has put in 137 tackles this season (4.2 per game), winning 51% of these, and has made a whopping 101 interceptions (3.1 per game).
And just to complete the package, the number 21 has a brilliant pass completion rate of 85% - the fourth highest of all West Brom players this season. What makes this even more impressive, is that Mulumbu averages 53.7 attempted passes per game - the most of any Baggie (Claudio Yacob is second with 36.9 per game).
The image below shows Mulumbu's completed passes in that three all draw with West Ham back in December. As you can see, these aren't just square passes to bolster the completion rate. Mulumbu has a wide range of passes in his locker, and is equally happy going square or playing searching balls in behind fullbacks. During that game, no player on the pitch attempted as many passes as Mulumbu's 77, and only three had better pass completion rates than his 87%.
How do you stop them?
Despite their poor home record this season, West Brom have only failed to score four times at the Hawthornes this season. But these games tell us something.
The key to stopping West Brom from playing well at home is to be patient.
West Brom are happy to play with the ball and try to keep possession, but often gift the ball to the opposition, and let them in for goalscoring opportunities. The four games in which they have failed to score, they have gifted the opposition possession of the ball frequently. The image below shows the number of misplaced passes by West Brom against the various teams to keep clean sheets at the Hawthornes.
This tendency to lose possession cheaply has impacted upon the way in which those sides have approached games at the Hawthornes.
The images below shows the numbers of interceptions and tackles made by the away side at the Hawthornes, and the number of those made in the West Brom half. What you can see, is that (with the notable exception of Manchester United) the away sides have found success without needing to press into the West Brom half.
Norwich, Swansea and Southampton each made less than 40% of their tackles in the opposition half, and less than 20% of their interceptions in this areas. What this suggests, is that teams do not need to press and hound the Baggies to be successful. Against a lot of Premier League teams, there is a necessity to put pressure on the ball, and stop them playing out from defence and through the midfield, but this does not appear to be the case against West Brom.
Weakness
It appears to me, that West Brom's biggest weakness at home is at left back. I'm hesitant to call Liam Ridgewell a weakness, because I think he is a very capable defender, and an able attacker, and I genuinely like the guy as a player.
However, his style of play this season has often left the back door open.
Ridgewell is very important to West Brom's attacking play. The image below shows the attack sides by West Brom in their last three home games. As you can see, the bulk of their attacks come from Ridgwell's left wing.
What this has meant though, is that there are often wide spaces behind the left back for opposition wingers to exploit. If you look at the average positions of the Baggies in those same three games, you can see that there are huge spaces in behind the former West Ham trainee.
If you compare Ridgewell's (#6) position to that of right back Steven Reid (#2), you can see that the the right wing can be a fruitful area for opposition sides to attack. On top of this, Jonas Olsson is not the quickest of centre halves, making the right wing position this weekend the key area for West Ham.
Based on the areas discussed, I believe that there are a few key players for West Ham on Saturday afternoon.
Firstly, whoever partners Mark Noble in the middle of midfield will need to have an engine on them to track Youssouf Mulumbu over the park. Frustrating the Congolese is an important aspect of playing the Baggies, as we know from his red card for kicking the ball at Gary O'Neil a year ago. A battle of Diamé vs Mulumbu would make for interesting viewing.
Second, Matt Jarvis needs to play at right wing. Both Jarvis and Downing have the ability to exploit the space behind Ridgewell, but Jarvis' extra pace and his natural right foot should made counterattacking at speed down that flank a far easier proposition.
And finally, be patient! The Baggies are likely to have more of the ball than us. However, we don't need to chasing it around the park. Drawing defenders and midfielders out of position is how they hurt teams. Being patient and biding our time could force them into conceding possession cheaply, and providing key counterattacking opportunities.
If think sticking to these areas and putting them into practice effectively should lead to a comfortable away victory. Whether it'll happen or not is another matter entirely.
Head to Head
38% Head to Head Win % 39%
37 Won 38
22 Drawn 22
38 Lost 37
157 Goals Scored 157
157 Goals Conceded 157
Recent Form
W L D W D L Last 6 L W W L L L
10 Goals Scored 6
12 Goals Conceded 10
D D D L D D Home/Away Form D W L L W L
9 Goals Scored 6
12 Goals Conceded 8
Form Player (excl. GK)
(Last 6 League)
Youssouf Mulumbu - Stewart Downing
6 Appearances 6
634 Minutes Played 516
135 Sum Squawka Performance Score 116
23 Average Squawka Performance Rating 19
272 Passes Attempted 182
219 Completed 148
81% Success Rate 81%
4 Chances Created 11
1 Assists 0
3 Attempts on Goal 7
2 On Target 2
1 Goals 0
6 Take Ons Attempted 24
5 Successful Take Ons 14
83% Success Rate 58%
39 Tackles Made 2
20 Successful Tackles 1
51% Success Rate 50%
18 Interceptions 5
6 Clearances 17
1 Blocks 1
4 Defensive Actions Per Game 4
15 Aerial Duels 14
6 Won 2
40% Success Rate 14%
0 Defensive Errors 0
0 Leading to a Goal 0
Last Meeting
28 December 2013
1-0 Joe Cole 4'
1-1 Nicolas Anelka 40'
1-2 Nicolas Anelka 45'
2-2 Modibo Maïga 65'
3-2 Kevin Nolan 67'
Saido Berahino 69'
3-5-2 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1
Ben Foster - Jussi Jääskeläinen
Gareth McAuley - Joey O'Brien
Jonas Olsson - James Tomkins (10')
(68') Diego Lugano - George McCartney
Billy Jones - Rǎzvan Raţ
(78') James Morrison - Mark Noble
Youssouf Mulumbu - Mohamed Diamé
Chris Brunt - Joe Cole (83')
Liam Ridgewell - Kevin Nolan
(85') Saido Berahino - Matt Jarvis
Nicolas Anelka - Carlton Cole (45')
Subs
Boaz Myhill - Adrián
Craig Dawson - Guy Demel (10')
(78') Claudio Yacob - Leo Chambers
Scott Sinclair - Jack Collison (83')
(68') Morgan Amalfitano - Matthew Taylor
Matej Vydra - Alou Diarra
(85') Stephane Sessegnon - Modibo Maïga (45')
Absentees
Injured/Doubtful
West Bromwich Albion: Liam Ridgewell, Gareth McAuley, Zoltan Gera
West Ham United: Guy Demel, Marco Borriello
Suspensions
West Bromwich Albion: n/a
West Ham United: n/a
Opposition Last Time Out (League)
vs Manchester City
Goals Scored: 1
Goals Conceded: 3
Starting Formation: 4-2-3-1
Ben Foster
Billy Jones Craig Dawson Jonas Olsson Liam Ridgewell
Youssouf Mulumbu (84') Chris Brunt
Morgan Amalfitano Stephane Sessegnon (76') Graham Dorrans
Matej Vydra (60')
subs:
Boaz Myhill
Steven Reid
Diego Lugano
Claudio Yacob
James Morrison (84')
Victor Anichebe (60')
Saido Berahino (76')
Best Player: Graham Dorrans(SR: 46)
Worst Player: Ben Foster(SR: -39)
Top 5's (Min 5 Apps)
Goals Scored
Saido Berahino 4 - 7 Kevin Nolan
Stephane Sessegnon 4 - 6 Carlton Cole
Morgan Amalfitano 4 - 4 Mohamed Diamé
Matej Vydra 3 - 3 Joe Cole
Victor Anichebe 3 - 3 Ravel Morrison*
Assists
Chris Brunt 5 - 5 Kevin Nolan
Matej Vrydra 3 - 4 Andy Carroll
Victor Anichebe 3 - 4 Mark Noble
James Morrison 3 - 3 Matt Jarvis
Youssouf Mulumbu 2 - 2 Stewart Downing
Passing Accuracy
Claudio Yacob 87% - 83% Mark Noble
Stephane Sessegnon 87% - 81% Stewart Downing
Saido Berahino 85% - 80% Kevin Nolan
Youssouf Mulumbu 85% - 79% Joey O'Brien
Scott Sinclair 83% - 79% Joe Cole
Chances Created per game
Chris Brunt 1.7 - 1.8 Stewart Downing
Graham Dorrans 1.7 - 1.5 Mark Noble
Morgan Amalfitano 1.6 - 1 Matt Jarvis
Stephane Sessegnon 1.3 - 1 Kevin Nolan
Victor Anichebe 1.2 - 0.9 Andy Carroll
Successful Dribbles per game
Stephane Sessegnon 1.8 - 1.9 Mohamed Diamé
Morgan Amalfitano 1.6 - 1.1 Stewart Downing
Thievy 1.2 - 1 Mark Noble
Youssouf Mulumbu 1.2 - 1 Guy Demel
Billy Jones 1.1 - 0.6 Matt Jarvis
Tackles per game
Claudio Yacob 4 - 2.8 Mark Noble
James Morrison 2.8 - 2.2 Mohamed Diamé
Graham Dorrans 2.5 - 2 James Collins
Youssouf Mulumbu 2.3 - 1.8 James Tomkins
Billy Jones 2.1 - 1.8 Matthew Taylor
Aerial Duels Won per game
Gareth McAuley 4 - 9.2 Andy Carroll
Jonas Olsson 3.4 - 4.3 James Tomkins
Victor Anichebe 2.5 - 3.5 James Collins
Diego Lugano 2.1 - 2.5 Carlton Cole
Craig Dawson 2.1 - 2.2 Winston Reid
Manager
Pepe Mel - Sam Allardyce
Current Club
15.3% Win % 40.9%
2 Won 54
6 Drawn 32
5 Lost 46
0 League Titles 0
0 Cup Wins 0
09/01/2014 Appointed 01/06/2011
107d Time in Charge 2y 329d
Managerial Career
38.7% Win % 39.9%
105 Won 348
71 Drawn 231
95 Lost 293
10 Sides Managed 7
2 League Titles 2
0 Cup Wins 0
Club Deportivo Coslada First Managerial Role Preston North End
01/06/1999 Start Date 30/09/1992
14y 329d Experience 21y 207d
*NOTE*
Pepe Mel managerial statistics not available from 2002/3 until start of 2008/9 season
