Tottenham Hotspur vs West Ham United

Sunday 6th October

15:00

White Hart Lane

Tottenham Hotspur vs West Ham United

Analysis

West Ham haven't lost the first game of a calendar month since a 2-1 defeat to Burnley way back in December 2011. In the intervening period, our record is: played 13, won 9, drawn 4 lost 0; scored 26, conceded 5. This is one of those weird little records to be proud of.

We've had some very difficult games over that period; the first playoff semi final away to Cardiff, home games against Manchester City and Chelsea, and away games at Liverpool, Newcastle and Southampton.

However, none of those challenges seem quite as large as the one facing us this weekend. Tottenham Hotspur look the real deal this season - spending over £100m in transfer fees can do that to a side.

They have a host of wonderfully creative midfielders including Erik Lamela, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Lewis Holtby, Mousa Dembele, Christian Eriksen, and the list goes on.. and on.

However, despite the glittering list of additions to the squad made over the summer, the players who have stood out most to me were both there last year; Mousa Dembele and Andros Townsend.

Dembele has had a wonderful start to the season, really picking up where he left off. Last season he had a pass completion rate of 90.9% (1329 out of 1462), this season it's up at 91.8% (268 of 292). Last season, he created 55 chances for his team mates at a rate of 1.8 per game, this season, he's created 11 - a rate of 1.8 per game.

But the Belgian is more than a elegant ball playing midfielder. Since the start of last season, he's also made 2.5 tackles per game - winning the ball 84.6% of the time (77 / 91). He's also completed on average 2 defensive actions (clearances, interceptions, blocks) per game, and has successfully dribbled past an opponent 2.2 times per game, having been successful with 78 of his 105 take ons (74%).

The image below shows Dembele's duels so far this season. As you can see, he is successful most of the time (78% overall) in all areas. If West Ham are to get anything from Sunday's game, we really need to keep Dembele quiet, and win the battle in midfield.

http://www.squawka.com/players/mousa-dembele

The other man to have really impressed is Townsend.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who expected the English winger to scarcely feature this season. With wide midfield talent including Aaron Lennon, Sigurdsson and Holtby being joined by Erik Lamela, it appeared that Townsend would be on the bench - or out on loan.

But he has made the right midfield spot his own in recent weeks, and offers a real attacking threat to any opposition defence.

In his 5 appearances this season, Townsend has attempted to go past a defender on 37 separate occasions, and has got the better of his man 24 times (65%). This means he's currently taking on a defender on average 7.4 times per game, and winning the contest 4.8 times per game.

The one area that has let Townsend down so far is the accuracy of his crossing. Of the 20 he has attempted, he has only hit his man 3 times. This has led to an increased intent on cutting inside and having a pop at goal - 14 shots already this season.

The image below shows Townsend's attempted take ons at the weekend against Chelsea. Coming up against an experience full back like Ashley Cole was never going to stop Townsend running with the ball. As you can see, all five of his successful attempts were down the right wing, attacking the England left back. Whether it's Joey O'Brien or Razvan Rat starting at left fullback on Sunday, Townsend will be making sure they have their work cut out for them.

http://epl.squawka.com/tottenham-hotspur-vs-chelsea/

The one area that Spurs still seem to be lacking is goals. Like us, they have struggled to get among the goals this season, with only three players scoring int the Premier league. With the players in their side, they are creating goalscoring opportunities at a rate of knots, but they are making hard work of sticking the ball in the net.

The main culprit so far has been their new signing Roberto Soldado. I was told by plenty of Spurs fans that Soldado would fire them into the Champions League - that he was world class. Maybe they were right, but so far, the Spaniard has struggled to live up to his billing.

Two goals in his opening six Premier League games is not the worst record in the world, but Soldado is yet to score from open play. He is also struggling to offer much to the side outside of his goals -h is pass completion rate is the worst of all Spurs' regular outfield players (76%), and he has won just 4 of his 28 aerial battles (14%).

The image below shows Soldado's attempted shots on goal. He has hit the target with 64% of his attempts (7 / 11), but, as previously mentioned, has yet to score from open play. It would by typical West Ham if Soldado suddenly found his goalscoring touch, but if he continues with his recent form, our defence could be largely untroubled by the striker.

http://www.squawka.com/players/roberto-soldado

On paper, this is likely to be the game where our 'first game of the month' unbeaten streak comes to an end.

But then, if football was played on paper our run would've ended 11 months ago when Manchester City came to town. Or 10 months ago when Chelsea came to the Boleyn. Or even 6 months ago when we travelled to Anfield.

This is an incredibly tought game, and one that we will do very well to get anything from. But it's not a write off. We can do this.

 Head to Head 

40% Head to Head Win % 35%

77 Won 67

48 Drawn 48

67 Lost 77

303 Goals Scored 266

266 Goals Conceded 303

 Recent Form 

W W W W D W Last 6 W L D L W L

13 Goals Scored 7

1 Goals Conceded 8

  

W W W W W D Home/Away Form D D L D D L

9 Goals Scored 1

1 Goals Conceded 4

  

 Form Player (Last 6 League) 

Mousa Dembele - Winston Reid

6 Appearances 6

449 Minutes Played 540

  

253 Sum Squawka Performance Score 106

42 Average Squawka Performance Rating 18

  

292 Passes Attempted 187

268 Completed 137

92% Success Rate 73%

  

11 Chances Created 1

0 Assists 0

  

3 Attempts on Goal 3

3 On Target 0

0 Goals 0

  

10 Tackles Made 13

9 Successful Tackles 11

90% Success Rate 85%

  

5 Interceptions 10

6 Clearances 55

2 Blocks 2

2 Defensive Actions Per Game 11

  

17 Aerial Duels 32

12 Won 19

71% Success Rate 59%

0 Defensive Errors 0

0 Leading to a Goal 0

  

 Last Meeting 

25 February 2013

0-1 Gareth Bale 14'

1-1 Andy Carroll 25'

2-1 Joe Cole 58'

2-2 Gylfi Sigurdsson 76'

2-3 Gareth Bale 90'

4-2-3-1 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1

 Starting XI 

Hugo Lloris - Jussi Jääskeläinen

Kyle Walker - Guy Demel (72')

Michael Dawson - James Collins

Steven Caulker - Winston Reid

Jan Vertonghen - Joey O'Brien

(88') Scott Parker - Gary O'Neil

(75') Mousa Dembele - Mohamed Diamé (84')

Aaron Lennon - Joe Cole

(56') Lewis Holtby - Kevin Nolan (35')

Gareth Bale - Matt Jarvis

Emmanuel Adebayor - Andy Carroll

 Subs 

Brad Friedel - Raphael Spiegel

Benoit Assou-Ekotto - Emanuel Pogatetz (72')

William Gallas - Matthew Taylor (35')

Kyle Naughton - Jack Collison (84')

(75') Tom Carroll - Ricardo Vâz Te

(88') Jake Livermore - Carlton Cole

(56') Gylfi Sigurdsson - Marouane Chamakh

 Absentees 

 Injured/Doubtful 

Tottenham Hotspur: Danny Rose, Aaron Lennon

West Ham United: Alou Diarra, Andy Carroll

 Suspensions 

Tottenham Hotspur: n/a

West Ham United: n/a

  Opposition Last Time Out

vs Anzhi Makhachkala

 Goals Scored: 2

 Goals Conceded: 0

 Starting Formation: 4-2-3-1

  Hugo Lloris

  Kyle Walker  Younes Kaboul (71')  Vlad Chiriches  Zeki Fryers

  Sandro  Mousa Dembele 

  Erik Lamela (71')  Lewis Holtby (78')  Nacer Chadli

  Jermain Defoe

 subs: 

  Brad Friedel

  Kyle Naughton

  Michael Dawson (71')

  Gylfi Sigurdsson (71')

  Christian Eriksen (78')

  Roberto Soldado

  Harry Kane

 Best Player: Vlad Chiriches

 Squawka Rating: 49

 Worst Player: Erik Lamela

 Squawka Rating: -17

  

 Top 5's (Min 2 Apps) 

 Goals Scored 

Gylfi Sigurdsson 3 - 1 Joe Cole

Roberto Soldado 2 - 1 Ravel Morrison

Paulinho 1 - 1 Mark Noble

n/a  - 1 Kevin Nolan

n/a - n/a 

 Assists 

Erik Lamela 1 - 2 Matt Jarvis

Christian Eriksen 1 - 1 Mark Noble

Paulinho 1 -  n/a

Roberto Soldado 1 - n/a 

 n/a -  n/a

 Passing Accuracy 

Mousa Dembele 91.8% - 86.4% Stewart Downing

Etienne Capoue 89.7% - 83.6% Ravel Morrison

Christian Eriksen 89.4% - 81.5% Mark Noble

Jan Vertonghen 89.4% - 81% Kevin Nolan

Paulinho 87.5% - 79.5% Joey O'Brien

 Chances Created per game 

Christian Eriksen 2.7 - 2 Mark Noble

Nacer Chadli 2.5 - 1.3 Matt Jarvis

Kyle Walker 2.2 - 1.3 Rǎzvan Raţ

Roberto Soldado 1.8 - 1.3 Stewart Downing

Mousa Dembele 1.8 - 0.8 Modibo Maïga

 Successful Dribbles per game 

Andros Townsend 4.8 - 2.5 Mohamed Diamé

Mousa Dembele 3.8 - 1.8 Mark Noble

Etienne Capoue 1.7 - 1.5 Joe Cole

Paulinho 1.5 - 1.4 Ravel Morrison

Danny Rose 1.5 - 0.7 Modibo Maïga

 Tackles per game 

Etienne Capoue 3 - 2.8 James Collins

Danny Rose 2.5 - 2.8 Mohamed Diamé

Kyle Walker 2.3 - 2.2 Winston Reid

Paulinho 2.3 - 2 Mark Noble

Nacer Chadli 1.8 - 1.8 Guy Demel

 Aerial Duels Won per game 

Michael Dawson 3.8 - 6.2 Modibo Maïga

Mousa Dembele 2 - 3.8 James Collins

Kyle Walker 2 - 3.2 Winston Reid

Nacer Chadli 2 - 1.8 Joey O'Brien

Jan Vertonghen 2 - 1.5 Joe Cole

 Manager 

Andre Villas-Boas - Sam Allardyce

54.6% Current Club Win % 42%

35 Won 42

17 Drawn 27

12 Lost 31

  

59.3% Managerial Career Win % 40%

114 Won 336

42 Drawn 226

36 Lost 278

1 League Titles 2

3 Cup Wins 0

West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur

Monday 25^th February 2013

20:00

Boleyn Ground

West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur

Head to Head

35% Head to Head Win% 40%

67 Won 76

48 Drawn 48

76 Lost 67

264 Scored 300

300 Conceded 264

L D L L W L Recent Form   L D W W W D 

5 Goals Scored 8

9 Goals Conceded 6

Mark Noble Form Player Gareth Bale

65.44 Average Capello Index Rating Last 6 Games 73.83

1 Goals 6

2 Assists 0

66.9 Average Capello Index Rating Season 66.51

24 Appearances 31

4 Goals 17

2 Assists 3

35 Chances Created 59

1,335 Passes 892

1,009 Completed 700

76% %Completed 78%

Analysis

When playing against one of the top teams in the division it can often be a real challenge to settle upon who is likely to provide the most danger in the forthcoming match. Tottenham Hotspur have a number of top class attacking threats (Aaron Lennon, Mousa Dembele, Emmanuel Adebayor, Lewis Holtby), and some quality defensive players (Hugo Lloris, Jan Vertonghen, Steven Caulker, Scott Parker). But their true danger man is clear for everyone to see: Gareth Bale.

If West Ham want to get anything from Monday’s game against Tottenham, they will need to contain a player who has scored 6 goals in his last 6 games, and 15 in 27 for the season.

“Impossible!”, you might think. But there could be a way.

According to the Capello Index, Bale’s best and worst performances have come in the 4-0 win over Aston Villa, and the 1-1 draw against West Bromwich Albion, respectively.

Against Villa, Bale had 84 touches of the ball (team average 51), whilst against West Brom he managed just 50 (team average 49). It seems simple, but the best way to keep Bale quiet is to keep the ball away from him. Easier said than done.

The key difference in the way West Brom & Aston Villa defended against Bale is clear when looking into average positions in the games. The first two images shows the West Brom game (Tottenham = Blue; West Brom = Orange).

The Tottenham team were pressed back by the West Brom attackers, with Bale (# 11) the furthest man forward. You can see that West Brom played a brave tactic that day, with both fullbacks (# 2 & 6) pushing high up the pitch in support of the wide midfielders, particularly on the right wing. As a result, Tottenham’s left back (Assou-Ekotto # 32) was pressed back, and was unable to help Bale in attack. In turn, 41% of Tottenham attacks coming down the right wing, away from Bale.

Compare this to Bale’s strongest performance, against Aston Villa (Tottenham = Orange; Aston Villa = Blue). Villa played a deep and narrow defensive game, with only Christian Benteke’s (# 20) average position in the opposition half.

As a result of this, the Tottenham fullback’s (Kyle Naughton # 16 & Kyle Walker # 28) were able to push high up the pitch in support of the wingers, allowing Lennon (# 7) and, in particular, Bale to push inside and attack the box.

Bale had a field day. He scored a hat-trick, had seven shots on goal, created four goalscoring opportunities for his team mates, had six successful dribbles, and whipped in an astonishing 17 crosses.

Based on these games, the clearest recommendation I can give is that West Ham need to play a back 4. Aston Villa attempted to play a fluid back 3/5 and were completely demolished by Bale.

If West Ham are to take anything from the game, Big Sam should play an adventurous 4-2-3-1, pushing the fullbacks on and suppressing Tottenham’s fullbacks from roaming forward.

This Tottenham Hotspur don't have many weak links but the way in which West Brom suppressed their attacking talents shows that the key to getting a positive result is the fullbacks. If West Ham’s fullbacks stay deep in their own half, Tottenham will press forward and outnumber the backline. They must get up in support of the wide men, who, in turn, must provide a constant supply line of crosses into the central striker.

There aren't many of them, but one of the areas where West Ham do have a clear advantage is in the air. Andy Carroll is likely to start against Tottenham, and he has won 63% of aerial battles this season. Now, I'm not suggesting that Tottenham's defenders are weak in the air, far from it, but they are far less practiced in this element than the West Ham strikers. Between them Caulker, Dawson, Gallas & Vertonghen have contested a total of 234 aerial battles this season (winning 57%). Andy Carroll has contested 208 on his own.

It is also important to remember that West Ham are a completely different proposition at home. They have more shots per game at home, the players dribble at the opposition more often at home, and, most importantly, they actually score goals at home. We have the 10th best home record in the division, and it's this home form that is likely to keep the side in the Premier League.

It would be easy for me to make predictions about the result of the game, but it really depends on what West Ham team turn up. Playing conservatively against the 3rd best away record in the league, and the divisions form player is suicide. But, if Big Sam sends his team out with some attacking intent, there is always a chance we can take something from the game. Stranger things have happened.

Oh, and if someone could send Gareth Bale a lasagne, that’d be great.

Last Meeting

25^th November 2012

Goalscorers:

1:0 Jermain Defoe 44’

2:0 Gareth Bale 58’

3:0 Jermain Defoe 64’

3:1 Andy Carroll 82’

4-2-3-1 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1

Jussi Jääskeläinen – Hugo Lloris

Joey O’Brien – Kyle Walker

James Tomkins – Michael Dawson

Winston Reid – Steven Caulker

George McCartney – Jan Vertonghen

Mark Noble – Sandro

Mohamed Diamé – Tom Huddlestone

Gary O’Neil – Aaron Lennon

Kevin Nolan – Clint Dempsey

Modibo Maïga – Gareth Bale

Andy Carroll – Jermain Defoe

Andy Carroll Best Performer Jermain Defoe

65.18 Capello Index Rating 75.29

Joey O’Brien Worst Performer Clint Dempsey

60.18 Capello Index Rating 57.25

Absentees

Injuries:

Joey O’Brien (WHU)

George McCartney (WHU)

James Collins (WHU)

Jermain Defoe (TH)

Younnes Kaboul (TH)

Sandro (TH)

Suspensions:

none

Opposition Last Time Out

vs Olympique Lyonnais

Goalscorers

1:0 Maxime Gonalons 17’

1:1 Mousa Dembele 90’

Best Player: Gareth Bale

Capello Index Rating: 82.83

Worst Player: Emmanuel Adebayor

Capello Index Rating: 58.88

Top 5’s (minimum 5 apps)

Goals Scored

Kevin Nolan 6 – 17 Gareth Bale

Mark Noble 4 – 15 Jermain Defoe

Modibo Maïga 4 – 8 Clint Dempsey

Andy Carroll 2 – 3 Aaron Lennon

Carlton Cole 2 – 3 Emmanuel Adebayor

Passing Accuracy

Mohamed Diamé 82.8% - 91.3% Mousa Dembele

Jack Collison 82.4% - 90.5% William Gallas

Mark Noble 82.3% - 88.3% Steven Caulker

Guy Demel 81.4% - 86.7% Jack Livermore

Joe Cole 80.7% - 86.3% Jan Vertonghen

Chances Created per game

Joe Cole 2.0 – 2.3 Gareth Bale

Mark Noble 1.5 – 2.1 Mousa Dembele

Andy Carroll 1.5 – 2.1 Aaron Lennon

Matt Jarvis 1.3 – 1.8 Kyle Walker

Jack Collison 1.2 – 1.3 Emmanuel Adebayor

Tackles per game

Mark Noble 4.0 – 3.3 Sandro

Mohamed Diamé 3.8 – 3.0 Mousa Dembele

George McCartney 2.0 – 2.8 Kyle Naughton

Winston Reid 1.8 – 2.8 Jan Vertonghen

James Collins 1.8 – 2.0 Scott Parker

Aerial Duels Won per game

Andy Carrol 10.1 – 2.4 Steven Caulker

Carlton Cole 4.3 – 2.2 Michael Dawson

James Collins 3.8 – 2.0 Clint Dempsey

James Tomkins 2.9 – 1.8 Jan Vertonghen

Winston Reid 2.5 – 1.8 Kyle Naughton

Managers 

Sam Allardyce - Andre Villas-Boas

44% Current Club Win% 50%

36 Won 19

21 Drawn 11

24 Lost 8

40% Managerial Career Win% 58%

332 Won 94

221 Drawn 35

272 Lost 32

2 League Titles 1

0 Cup Wins 3