Sunderland vs West Ham United

Saturday 13th December 2014

15:00

Stadium of Light

Sunderland vs West Ham United

Analysis

Before this season began, there were many people who felt that West Ham and Sunderland would be scrapping in the same section of the league throughout this season. In fact, in the 'West Ham til I Die' user prediction game, the average prediction for West Ham was 10th, and 12th for Sunderland.

It's fair to say, the season hasn't quite gone like that so far.

West Ham sit in one of the power seats of the division, among the esteemed company of Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs. Meanwhile, Sunderland have won just twice this season and are currently in 14th place.

But despite only having a pair of wins so far, the Black Cats can be a tough nut to crack, and this weekend will be a real test of the newly found quality and resilience of the Hammers.

Key Player

There may be a few raised eyebrows at my selection of Sunderland's key player.

The likes of John O'Shea, Anthony Reveillere and Sebastien Larsson have all been in good form this recently, but the man I am picking out is forward-cum-winger Connor Wickham.

The former Ipswich Town prodigy hasn't really had the career Sunderland had hoped for when they forked out £8m to sign the then 18 year old back in 2011. However, he ended last season in blistering form, and has been an ever present in Gus Poyet's side this term.

His form has been patchy, but when he is on song he is the sort of player that is capable of winning any game. If we take a look at Sunderland's victories this season, you can see the sort of impact that England U21 international can have on his side.

In the 3-1 over Stoke back at the beginning of October, Wickham bagged himself a goal, and assist, two interceptions, three clearances, put in three tackles and generally ran himself into the ground.

The images below show his heat map and take ons from the game. On the day, he was successful 4 out of the 5 times he took on his man, and, significantly, three of those were in or around the penalty area. This displays Wickham's direct approach, picking up the ball and driving at the opposition.

And his heat map from the game shows that he is difficult to pick up too. Despite lining up as a left winger in most games this season, the youngster has a tendency to pop up all over the park, working back to help his fullbacks, picking up the ball in the central channel, or coming in off the right.

http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-stoke-city/

In the other win, November's 3-1 win at Crystal Palace, Wickham didn't produce such an impact. However, his performance shows that he has a pretty well rounded game.

He had 10 aerial duels in that game (winning 50%), attempted 10 tackles (winning 50%), and made 5 clearances.

His heat map below displays his work rate for the team, as they withstood heavy pressure from the Eagles. You can see that he spent a significant amount of time defending in the left fullback area.

http://epl.squawka.com/crystal-palace-vs-sunderland/

He may not be a world beater, and he may not even be Sunderland's best player, but Connor Wickham is the sort that can produce a performance out of the blue, and cause some serious damage to an opposition.

How do you stop Sunderland?

Despite their poor start to the season, the Black Cats have only actually lost two home games this season - against Arsenal and Manchester City. The problem they have had is that they've drawn 5 of their opening 8 home games, winning just once.

One of the key reasons that they have struggled to convert draws to wins is the approach they tend to take. Gus Poyet's side are one of those that are happy to allow the opposition to have the ball and attack, and then try to hit them on the break. This is an approach that they tend to adopt both home and away.

The chart below shows the possession held by Sunderland in their 8 home league games this season, compared with West Ham's possession in our 7 away games this season.

You can see that the Hammers have generally held more possession away from home than the Black Cats have managed at the Stadium of Light this term. From this, it seems a fair bet that the Irons are likely to have the lions share of possession.

Probably Sunderland's best home results this season have come in the win against Stoke, and draw with Chelsea. In both of those games, the opposition has had the a massive bulk of possession, but Sunderland have been able to soak pressure and hit on the counter.

The images below show Sunderland's take ons from both of those games, you can see that the approach is clearly to get out of defence quickly and get forward.

http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-stoke-city/

http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-chelsea/

Considering a pointed out being caught on the break as a weakness for West Ham after the Swansea game last week, this is something we will need to be mindful of as we surge forward in search of goals.

Weakness

One of Sunderland's clear weaknesses is that they are weak defensively. They have been more resolute in recent weeks, but there is still a fragile streak at the back.

Three of the last five games Sunderland have played at home have been against Everton, Arsenal and Manchester City. The images below show the chances created by those sides.

You can see that all three took very different approaches to the game. Everton (left) favoured attacking down the flanks, putting in 17 crosses, and creating 8 of their 14 chances from the wide areas. All of the chances arsenal (centre) created were within the width of the penalty box, while Manchester City (right) mixed it up.

http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-everton/

http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-arsenal/

http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-manchester-city/

During those games Everton only scored from a penalty and Arsenal's goals came from defensive lapses, whilst City created a lot of chances, and scored four from open play.

Against Sunderland, the style of the approach play is not as pronounced as it is against other sides. For example, you wouldn't tend to go long against Stoke as they will beat most players in the air, but against Arsenal you're likely to have a lot of joy in the air.

If West Ham are to pick up another victory on the road, we must be willing to adapt, and mix our styles. We shouldn't simply look to put the ball on Carroll's head, or look to Downing to pick passes, or Sakho to run behind. We must do all of these things and more.

Conclusion

On paper, we are a side that should be beating Sunderland. We have an almost entirely fit squad to choose from, our form is good, and there's isn't great.

Despite this, I have a sneaking feeling that we won't get the win we are after. For me, any away point is a good point, and that's what I think we'll get: a good point.

 Head to Head 

36% Head to Head Win % 38%

31 Won 33

22 Drawn 22

33 Lost 31

124 Goals Scored 133

133 Goals Conceded 124

 Recent Form (excl. Friendlies) 

W D D D L D Last 6 D D L W W W

5 Goals Scored 9

6 Goals Conceded 6

  

D W L D D L Home/Away Form D L W D L W

5 Goals Scored 11

8 Goals Conceded 10

  

 Form Player (excl. GK) 

 (Last 6 League) 

Sebastien Larsson - James Tomkins

6 Appearances 5

505 Minutes Played 426

  

45 Sum WhoScored Performance Score 39.6

7.5 Average WhoScored Performance Rating 7.9

  

220 Passes Attempted 150

183 Completed 107

83% Success Rate 71%

  

11 Chances Created 1

0 Assists 0

  

3 Attempts on Goal 1

3 On Target 1

1 Goals 1

5 Take Ons Attempted 1

4 Successful Take Ons 1

80% Success Rate 100%

  

30 Tackles Made 16

13 Successful Tackles 12

43% Success Rate 75%

  

10 Interceptions 12

8 Clearances 50

2 Blocks 7

3 Defensive Actions Per Game 14

  

7 Aerial Duels 29

2 Won 23

29% Success Rate 79%

0 Defensive Errors 0

0 Leading to a Goal 0

  

 Last Meeting 

31 March 2014

0-1 Andy Carroll 9'

0-2 Mohamed Diamé 50'

1-2 Adam Johnson 65'

  

3-5-2 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1

Vito Mannone - Adrián

Wes Brown - Guy Demel

(60') John O'Shea - James Tomkins

Santiago Vergini - Winston Reid

Phil Bardsley - George McCartney (46')

Liam Bridcutt - Mark Noble

(79') Ki Sung-Yeung - Matthew Taylor

(53') Lee Cattermole - Stewart Downing

Marcos Alonso - Kevin Nolan (84')

Fabio Borini - Mohamed Diamé (79')

Connor Wickham - Andy Carroll

 Subs 

Oscar Ustari - Jussi Jääskeläinen

Carlos Cuellar - Roger Johnson (79')

Craig Gardner - Pablo Armero (46')

(60') Jack Colback - Antonio Nocerino (84')

(53') Adam Johnson - Matt Jarvis

(79') Ignacio Scocco - Joe Cole

Jozy Altidore - Carlton Cole

 Absentees 

 Injured/Doubtful 

Sunderland: Billy Jones, Patrick van Aanholt, Emanuele Giaccherini

West Ham United: Carl Jenkinson, Mark Noble

 Suspensions 

Sunderland: 

West Ham United: 

  Opposition Last Time Out (League)

vs Liverpool

 Goals Scored: 0

 Goals Conceded: 0

 Starting Formation: 4-1-4-1

  Costel Pantilimon

  Santiago Vergini  John O'Shea  Wes Brown  Anthony Reveillere

  Liam Bricutt

  Adam Johnson (78')  Sebastien Larsson (69')  Jordi Gomez  Connor Wickham

  Jozy Altidore (6.9)

 subs:

Vito Mannone

  Thomas Robson

  Jack Rodwell

  Lee Cattermole (69')

  Will Buckley (78')

  Ricardo Alvarez (6.9)

  Steven Fletcher

  

 Best Player: John O'Shea (SR: 8.3)

 Worst Player: Jozy Altidore (SR: 6.2)

  

 Top 5's (Min 5 Apps) 

 Goals Scored 

Steven Fletcher 4 - 7 Diafra Sakho

Sebastien Larsson 2 - 3 Enner Valencia

Connor Wickham 2 - 2 Andy Carroll

Jordi Gomez 1 - 2 Mauro Zárate

Jack Rodwell 1 - 2 Carlton Cole

 Assists 

Patrick van Aanholt 2 - 6 Stewart Downing

Sebastien Larsson 2 - 2 Enner Valencia

Liam Bridcutt 1 - 2 Carl Jenkinson

Jordi Gomez 1 - 2 Cheikhou Kouyaté

Will Buckley 1 - 2 James Tomkins

 Passing Accuracy 

Patrick van Aanholt 87% - 86% Mark Noble

John O'Shea 86% - 85% Stewart Downing

Sebastien Larsson 84% - 84% Mauro Zárate

Liam Bridcutt 84% - 82% Winston Reid

Wes Brown 84% - 82% Kevn Nolan

 Chances Created per 90 

Sebastien Larsson 2.08 - 2.79 Stewart Downing

Adam Johnson 1.29 - 1.33 Andy Carroll

Jordi Gomez 1.27 - 1.31 Mauro Zárate

Jozy Altidore 1.19 - 1.26 Mark Noble

Patrick van Aanholt 0.85 - 1.25 Alex Song

 Successful Dribbles per 90 

Adam Johnson 2.15 - 2.4 Mauro Zárate

Santiago Vergini 1.65 - 1.73 Enner Valencia

Jozy Altidore 1.59 - 1.3 Diafra Sakho

Connor Wickham 1.58 - 1.25 Alex Song

Will Buckley 1.52 - 0.88 Morgan Amalfitano

 Tackles Won per 90 

Patrick van Aanholt 2.34 - 2.75 Alex Song

Jack Rodwell 2.29 - 2.62 Mark Noble

Sebastien Larsson 2.19 - 2.53 Cheikhou Kouyaté

Liam Bridcutt 2.08 - 1.66 Carl Jenkinson

Lee Cattermole 2.04 - 1.58 James Tomkins

 Aerial Duels Won per 90 

Jozy Altidore 5.58 - 14.07 Andy Carroll

Steven Fletcher 3.45 - 4.82 James Collins

Connor Wickham 2.95 - 4.1 James Tomkins

Wes Brown 2.09 - 3.51 Diafra Sakho

Liam Bridcutt 1.88 - 3.17 Carlton Cole

 Manager 

Gus Poyet - Sam Allardyce

15/11/1967 DOB 19/10/1954

47 Age 60

  

 Playing Career 

Real Zaragoza Main Club Bolton Wanderers

239 Appearances 231

63 Goals 24

  

5 Total Clubs 9

463 Appearances 512

125 Goals 43

  

Uruguay National Team England

26 Caps 0

  

 Managerial Career 

Brighton & Hove Albion First Managerial Role Preston North End

10/11/2009 Start Date 30/09/1992

5y 1m 2d Experience 22y 2m 12d

  

2 Sides Managed 7

1 League Titles 2

0 Cup Wins 0

  

41.8% Win % 39.9%

105 Won 357

75 Drawn 235

71 Lost 302

  

 Longest Role (excl. Current) 

Brighton & Hove Albion Club Bolton Wanderers

10/11/2009 Appointed 19/10/1999

23/06/2013 Left 29/04/2007

3y 7m 12d Time in Charge 7y 6m 9d

1 League Titles 0

0 Cup Wins 0

  

44.3% Win % 41.2%

86 Won 153

59 Drawn 104

49 Lost 114

  

 Current Club 

08/10/2013 Appointed 01/06/2011

1y 2m 4d Time in Charge 3y 6m 12d

  

0 League Titles 0

0 Cup Wins 0

  

33.3% Win % 40.9%

19 Won 63

16 Drawn 36

22 Lost 55

Sunderland vs West Ham United

Monday 31st March 2014

19:45

Stadium of Light

Sunderland vs West Ham United

Analysis

Win this, and we're pretty much safe.

Three points puts us at 37 points with 6 games to go. That'd be 11 points clear of 18th place Cardiff City, 12 points clear of 19th place Sunderland (though they will still have two in hand), and 13 clear of dead and buried Fulham.

This is a big, important game. The sort of game Sam Allardyce was born to manage, and the sort of game that probably won't fetch the best Monday night viewing figures!

Key Player

Sunderland have a number of important players in their ranks, and will need a number of them to hit some kind of form between now and the end of the season if they're to survive.

Adam Johnson had a glorious January, scoring five and creating two in four appearances. Sebastien Larsson, Craig Gardner, Jack Colback and Fabio Borini have all played important roles for the Black Cats in recent times, while the likes of Phil Bardsley, Lee Cattermole, Liam Bridcutt and John O'Shea have the experience and defensive knowhow to make life difficult for opposition attackers.

But for me, Sunderland's key man is on loan Swansea City midfielder Ki Sung-Yueng.

The South Korean international has scored three goals from midfield this season, created 25 chances and won an impressive 59% of his 58 tackles. He has been an all round, consistent presence in the middle of the park this season.

But what puts Ki apart from the rest is his ability and composure on the ball. The midfielder has completed a quite remarkable 91% of his passes in a Sunderland side not renowned for it's ball playing ability. And, unlike the accusations offered lobbied toward his parent club, Ki plays the majority of passes forward (58.8% of his 1076), and doesn't mind going long when required (9% or 98 long balls).

In the 3-0 away derby victory, Ki was a metronome in the middle of the park, completing 97% of his passes - overall, his team completed 75%.

http://epl.squawka.com/newcastle-united-vs-sunderland/

But not only can the Korean keep hold of the ball, but he is perfectly skilled when travelling with it. Ki takes on an opposition player a little more than once a game (25 in 24 appearances), but when he does, he is very effective, completing 88% of his take ons.

http://www.squawka.com/players/ki-sung-yueng

I've seen talk this week that West Ham are interested in bolstering their midfield ranks with Raul Meireles in the summer. But maybe Ki should be on the list of targets too...

How do you stop them?

After their good form a couple of months back, Sunderland have failed to win since their derby victory back on the first of February, losing four and drawing one of their following five games.

And the Black Cats have a pretty poor home record this season in the league. In front of their own fans, Sunderland have collected just 12 points (three wins, three draws) from 14 games. In fact, if the league were compiled from home form only, Sunderland would sit bottom of the league.

In their last two home games, Gus Poyet's team have managed a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace, and a two goal defeat at the hands of Hull City. Both teams adopted very different styles of play, and I believe the best way to nullify Sunderland at home is to approach the game in the manner that Hull did. While Palace sat back, defended deep and ground out a point, Hull refused to allow Sunderland into their penalty area.

The image below shows the overall heat map of the game. What you can see, is that the Hull penalty box was the least active area in the game and was barely troubled throughout - particularly when compared to the Sunderland area.

http://epl.squawka.com/sunderland-vs-hull-city/

By putting Sunderland on the back foot, tackling high up the park, and using their 3-5-2 formation to congest the middle of the field and crowd out Sunderland's attack, Hull managed to keep the Mackems at arms length.

Weakest Link

Sunderland have had two key weaknesses this season.

Firstly, their inability to score goals. Strikers Steven Fletcher, Jozy Altidore and Fabio Borini have managed 7 goals between them in a combined 70 Premier League appearances. And, other than Adam Johnson, nobody else has really stepped up and chipped in.

But their real weakness has been individual errors - and the main culprit has been someone who should really know better.

For a man with more than 400 career appearances - 300+ of these in the Premier League and European competition - 23 England caps, 9 domestic cups, 5 Premier League titles and 2 Champions League winners medals under his belt, Wes Brown has been abysmal.

The former Manchester United defender is supposed to provide an experienced, reliable head at the back for Sunderland, but has completely failed to do so this season. In a side that has committed 12 errors leading directly to a shot on goal, Brown has made more than any other player, with three mistakes - one of which led to a goal. On top of this, Brown has committed 11 fouls and received three red cards, leaving his side in the lurch on numerous occasions.

Despite this, Sunderland do concede less goals when the defender is playing (1.1 with and 2.1 without), though this figure is affected greatly by the start of the season under Paolo Di Canio - where Brown was out of the side and the entire side was leaking goals like nobodies business.

And Brown has won 60% of his aerial duels this season, despite playing in a side whose lack of ability in this area has led to whoscored.com calling their aerial duels a real weakness in this side. Though the former England defender has only contested 3.3 duels per game this season, and hasn't come up against anyone playing a traditional target man this season.

I reckon we'll draw this. We'll be resolute, defend well, but won't really threaten to score.

 Head to Head 

36% Head to Head Win % 38%

31 Won 32

22 Drawn 22

32 Lost 31

123 Goals Scored 131

131 Goals Conceded 123

 Recent Form 

L L L D L L Last 6 W W L L L W

3 Goals Scored 8

14 Goals Conceded 8

  

D W W L W D Home/Away Form L W D W L L

5 Goals Scored 5

4 Goals Conceded 10

  

 Form Player (excl. GK) 

 (Last 6 League) 

Adam Johnson - James Tomkins

6 Appearances 6

395 Minutes Played 540

  

119 Sum Squawka Performance Score 129

20 Average Squawka Performance Rating 22

  

117 Passes Attempted 170

89 Completed 124

76% Success Rate 73%

  

11 Chances Created 0

1 Assists 0

  

8 Attempts on Goal 1

3 On Target 0

1 Goals 0

12 Take Ons Attempted 0

8 Successful Take Ons 0

67% Success Rate 0%

  

9 Tackles Made 14

6 Successful Tackles 9

67% Success Rate 64%

  

2 Interceptions 17

1 Clearances 51

0 Blocks 2

1 Defensive Actions Per Game 12

  

4 Aerial Duels 38

2 Won 26

50% Success Rate 68%

0 Defensive Errors 0

0 Leading to a Goal 0

  

 Last Meeting 

14 December 2013

  

4-2-3-1 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1

Vito Mannon - Jussi Jääskeläinen

Ondrej Celustka - Guy Demel (58')

John O'Shea - James Collins

Wes Brown - James Tomkins

(82') Phil Bardsley - George McCartney

Lee Cattermole - Mark Noble

Ki Sung-Yueng - Ravel Morrison

Emanuele Giaccherini - Joe Cole (75')

Sebastian Larsson - Mohamed Diamé

(72') Fabio Borini - Matt Jarvis (56')

(73') Jozy Altidore - Modibo Maïga

 Subs 

Jordan Pickford - Adrián

(82') Andrea Dossena - Rǎzvan Raţ

Valentin Roberge - Joey O'Brien (58')

Cabral - Jack Collison (56')

Craig Gardner - Matthew Taylor

(72') Adam Johnson - Alou Diarra

(73') Steven Fletcher - Carlton Cole (75')

 Absentees 

 Injured/Doubtful 

Sunderland: Kieran WestwoodSteven Fletcher

West Ham United: Winston Reid, James Collins, Joey O'Brien, Matt Jarvis, Marco Borriello

 Suspensions 

Sunderland: n/a

West Ham United: n/a

  Opposition Last Time Out (League)

vs Liverpool

 Goals Scored: 1

 Goals Conceded: 2

 Starting Formation: 5-3-2

  Vito Mannone

  Phil Bardsley  Santiago Vergini  John O'Shea  Wes Brown  Andrea Dossena (83')

  Liam Bridcutt  Lee Catermole

  Emanuele Giaccherini (61')

  Jozy Altidore  Connor Wickham (61')

 subs:

Oscar Ustari

  Valentin Rogerge

  Ki Sung-Yueng (61')

  Sebastian Larsson

  Adam Johnson (61')

  Jack Colback (83')

  Ignacio Scocco

  

 Best Player: Ki Sung-Yueng

 Squawka Rating: 45

 Worst Player: Santiago Vergini

 Squawka Rating: -26

  

 Top 5's (Min 5 Apps) 

 Goals Scored 

Adan Johnson 7 - 7 Kevin Nolan

Steven Fletcher 3 - 6 Carlton Cole

Emanuele Giaccherini 3 - 3 Joe Cole

Fabio Borini 3 - 3 Ravel Morrison*

Ki Sung-Yueng 3 - 3 Mohamed Diamé

 Assists 

Adam Johnson 4 - 5 Kevin Nolan

Jack Colback 2 - 3 Andy Carroll

Craig Gardner 1 - 3 Matt Jarvis

Emanuele Giaccherini 1 - 3 Mark Noble

Fabio Borini 1 - 2 Stewart Downing

 Passing Accuracy 

Ki Sung-Yueng 91% - 83% Mark Noble

Jack Colback 88% - 81% Stewart Downing

Valentin Roberge 86% - 79% Joe Cole

Lee Cattermole 85% - 79% Joey O'Brien

John O'Shea 83% - 78% Kevin Nolan

 Chances Created per game 

Adam Johnson 1.5 - 1.8 Stewart Downing

Sebastian Larsson 1.4 - 1.5 Mark Noble

Marcos Alonso 1.3 - 1 Matt Jarvis

Emanuele Giaccherini 1.3 - 1 Kevin Nolan

Ki Sung-Yueng 1 - 0.8 Andy Carroll

 Successful Dribbles per game 

Emanuele Giaccherini 1.3 - 1.8 Mohamed Diamé

Marcos Alonso 1.3 - 1.1 Mark Noble

Adam Johnson 1.2 - 0.9 Guy Demel

Phil Bardsley 0.9 - 0.9 Stewart Downing

Ki Sung-Yueng 0.9 - 0.6 Matt Jarvis

 Tackles per game 

Marcos Alonso 3.6 - 2.7 Mark Noble

Lee Cattermole 2.8 - 2.2 Mohamed Diamé

Phil Bardsley 2.5 - 2 James Collins

Liam Bridcutt 2.5 - 1.9 Kevin Nolan

Valentin Roberge 2.4 - 1.8 Matthew Taylor

 Aerial Duels Won per game 

Steven Fletcher 3 - 8.4 Andy Carroll

Jozy Altidore 2.5 - 4.4 James Tomkins

John O'Shea 2.4 - 3.5 James Collins

Wes Brown 2.1 - 2.6 Carlton Cole

Marcos Alonso 1.8 - 2.4 Winston Reid

 Manager 

Gus Poyet - Sam Allardyce

38.7% Current Club Win % 41.4%

12 Won 53

6 Drawn 32

13 Lost 43

  

43.5% Managerial Career Win % 39.9%

98 Won 347

65 Drawn 231

62 Lost 290

2 Sides Managed 7

1 League Titles 2

0 Cup Wins 0

  

Brighton & Hove Albion First Managerial Role Preston North End

10/11/2009 Start Date 30/09/1992

4y 141d Experience 21y 181d