Friday, 10 May 2013

Everton vs West Ham United

Sunday 12th May
Goodison Park

Everton vs West Ham United

I've always felt that West Ham were the sort of team that other teams would like to have a 'special occasion' against. Like, the other year when Torres only scored one goal in six months for Chelsea, you just knew it would come against us.

Being the team that travels to Merseyside for David Moyes' last ever home game in charge of Everton could go one of two ways. We could turn up and spoil the occasion, or we could get our tummies tickled and give the Scot a good send off before he heads to Old Trafford.

Well, we should be pretty well prepared for this Everton side. A common feature of Moye's team is the consistency of his starting eleven. The chances of a drastic change of line up or formation is highly unlikely. In fact, in 36 league games this season, Moyes has used his 4-4-1-1 formation on 26 separate occasions, and has used variations (4-5-1, 4-2-3-1) a further 4 times.

The image below shows Everton's best XI this season, according to There is a real likelihood that we will face at least 10 of those players on Sunday, which Victor Anichebe in for Nikica Jelavic the only likely change.

Although the form player according to Capello Index is Phil Jagielka, Everton have two key dangermen, and if West Ham are to get anything from our last home game of the season, we'll need to keep them quiet.

Marouane Fellaini has had one of his most productive seasons since joining Everton, bagging 11 league goals. 6 of these have come with his head, and 10 of them were from within the box. It's debatable whether Fellaini has come up against a defender as good in the air as James Collins so far this season, so it will be very interesting to see how he fairs.

Looking at the image below showing where the Belgian has scored his goals from this season, it seems clear to me that the best way to stop Fellaini from troubling the scoresheet is by stopping him getting into the box. If the defensive midfield pairing can stop his surging runs, we could well have a chance.

The other key dangerman in the Everton ranks is a man who could very well also be playing his last home game for Everton this weekend. With rumours afoot that David Moyes will want to take Leighton Baines to Old Trafford with him, it seems plausible that the England left back will be making his 245th Everton appearance his last one at Goodison.

Baines has been one of the stand out performers in the Premier League this season. To my mind, he is the best English left back around, and he is probably the best left back in the league (except Joey O'Brien of course!). One of the things that sets Baines aside from other fullbacks, is his relentless drive to get forward and cause trouble for opposition defences.

The heat map below shows where Baines took his touches against West Ham back in December. Rarely leaving the left flank, Baines was an almost constant threat to James Tomkins at right back. Hopefully a specialist fullback will be up against him on Sunday, because, combined with left midfielder Steven Pienaar, the Everton fullback is a real handful.

Another sign of Baines quality is the way in which his team's style of play is geared around getting the best out of him. Despite having quality players all over the pitch, Everton commonly attack down the left wing, utilising one of their best assets in Baines' crossing ability.

The image below shows Everton's action zones in last weekends Merseyside derby. As you can see, there is a decent spread of play across the whole pitch, but the left wing area commonly filled by Baines is much busier than the same area on the right flank.

Enough about Everton though. If West Ham are to gain something from this game, we will need to cross a little better than we did in the first fixture between the two clubs. Of the 16 crosses attempted in the 2-1 defeat, just two reached their man (see image below).

Hopefully the recent improvement in form from Matt Jarvis, and West Ham's ability to call on Andy Carroll rather than Carlton Cole, might mean we can improve this stat and cause Everton's defenders some real problems.

To be honest, I can't really predict what will happen in this one. Everton could be deflated by the news of Moyes departure. They could give him a real send off. We could turn up with a few youngsters in the ranks with a real fire in our belly. Or we could play like we're on holiday.

I'd love us to ruin Moyes' last day at Goodison and take back three points, but I'm not convinced we will...

 Head to Head 
50% Head to Head Win % 29%
62 Won 36
27 Drawn 27
36 Lost 62
213 Goals Scored 146
146 Goals Conceded 213

 Recent Form 
D W D L W D Last 6 D D D W L D
5 Goals Scored 6
3 Goals Conceded 5
W L W W W W Home/Away Form L W L D D L
9 Goals Scored 4
4 Goals Conceded 7
Phil Jagielka Form Player (All Comps) Andy Carroll
65.61 Last 6 65.44
1 Goals Scored 4
0 Assists 2
34(0) Season (League) 62.45
34(0) Appearances 20(2)
2 Goals 7
1 Assists 2
11 Chances Created 27
1357 Passes 633
1050 Passes Completed 383
77.4% % Completed 60.5%

 Last Meeting 
22 December 2012
1-0 Carlton Cole 14'

4-4-2 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1
 Starting XI 
Tim Howard - Jussi Jääskeläinen
John Heitinga - James Tomkins
Phil Jagielka - James Collins
Sylvain Distin - Winston Reid
Leighton Baines - Joey O'Brien
Leon Osman - Mark Noble
Phil Neville - Gary O'Neil
Darron Gibson - Matt Taylor
Steven Pienaar - Kevin Nolan
Victor Anichebe - Matt Jarvis
Nikica Jelavi - Carlton Cole

Steven Pienaar Best Player Carlton Cole
76.84 CI Rating 68.59
Nikica Jelavic Worst Player James Tomkins
56.96 CI Rating 58

Everton: Phil Neville
West Ham United: George McCartney, James Tomkins

Everton: n/a
West Ham United: n/a

  Opposition Last Time Out
vs Liverpool
 Goals Scored: 0
 Goals Conceded: 0
 Starting Formation: 4-4-1-1

  Tim Howard

  Seamus Coleman  Phil Jagielka  Sylvain Distin  Leighton Baines

  Kevin Mirallas  Leon Osman  Darron Gibson  Stephen Pienaar

  Marouane Fellaini

  Victor Anichebe

subs: Jan Mucha  Tony Hibbert  John Heitenga  Shane Duffy  Bryan Oviedo  Stephen Naismith  Nikica Jelavic

 Best Player: Sylvain Distin
 CI Rating: 64.18
 Worst Player: Victor Anichebe
 CI Rating: 60.38
 Top 5's (min 5 apps) 
 Goals Scored 
Marouane Fellaini 12 - 7 Andy Carroll
Nikica Jelavic 8 - 7 Kevin Nolan
Victor Anichebe 8 - 4 Modibo Maïga
Leon Osman 8 - 4 Mark Noble
Leighton Baines 7 - 3 Mohamed Diamé

Steven Pienaar 5 - 4 Joey O'Brien
Leighton Baiens 5 - 4 Ricardo Vâz Te
Seamus Coleman 5 - 3 Gary O'Neil
Marouane Fellaini 5 - 2 Mark Noble
Kevin Mirallas 3 - 2 Guy Demel

 Passing Accuracy 
Phil Neville 86.8% - 84.5% Mohamed Diamé
Leon Osman 85.7% - 82.3% Mark Noble
John Heitinga 82.5% - 80.1% Joe Cole
Leighton Baines 82.1% - 79.8% George McCartney
Tony Hibbert 81.8% - 79.7% Guy Demel

 Chances Created per game 
Leighton Baines 3.1 - 1.7 Joe Cole
Steven Pienaar 2.2 - 1.6 Gary O'Neil
Kevin Mirallas 1.4 - 1.5 Matt Jarvis
Marouane Fellaini 1.2 - 1.4 Mark Noble
Thomas Hitzlsperger 1.1 - 1.2 Andy Carroll

 Successful Dribbles per game 
Kevin Mirallas 1.3 - 2.1 Mohamed Diamé
Seamus Coleman 0.9 - 0.8 Guy Demel
Leon Osman 0.8 - 0.7 Ricardo Vâz Te
Leighton Baines 0.8 - 0.5 Matt Jarvis
Steven Pienaar 0.7 - 0.4 Joey O'Brien

 Tackles per game 
Tony Hibbert 2.8 - 3.7 Mark Noble
Marouane Fellaini 2.7 - 3.4 Mohamed Diamé
Leon Osman 2.4 - 1.9 Winston Reid
Leighton Baines 2.4 - 1.9 James Collins
Seamus Coleman 2.3 - 1.8 George McCartney

 Aerial Duels Won per game 
Marouane Fellaini 5.1 - 9.6 Andy Carroll
Sylvain Distin 3.8 - 4 Carlton Cole
Victor Anichibe 2.9 - 3 James Collins
Phil Jagielka 2.5 - 2.7 James Tomkins
Leon Osman 1.7 - 2.4 Winston Reid

David Moyes - Sam Allardyce
42.0% Current Club Win % 42.3%
217 Won 39
139 Drawn 25
160 Lost 28
44% Managerial Career Win % 40.0%
330 Won 333
197 Drawn 224
223 Lost 274

1 League Titles 2
0 Cup Wins 0

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