What Has Happened to Tomas Soucek?

It’s been two and a half years since Tomas Soucek walked through the doors at Rush Green and became an instant cult hit at the club. For the next 18 months, the Czechia captain was an all-action, goal-scoring, centre midfielder who could run all day, and did. He was linked with moves to some of the top Premier League sides and was pretty much unanimously seen as a star of the side.

But for the past year or so, it’s been a different story. Despite keeping his place in the middle of the park, there has been a big drop off in Soucek’s form.

So, what has happened?

GOALSCORING

One of the things Soucek is most famed for during his time at West Ham, has been his goalscoring record. From joining the club in January 2020, through to the end of the 2020/21 season, Soucek was scoring a league goal every 343 minutes. Or, he was scoring 0.26 goals for every 90 minutes he played in the league.

In the 2021/22 season, that dropped down to one goal every 510 minutes, and 0.15 goals per 90 (G90).

Obviously, this is a notable drop off. But why did that happen?

Basically, the quality and frequency of chances, and the quality of finishing, was lower last season than in either of his previous seasons. These stats aren’t your everyday stats, so bear with me a minute while I explain.

In both 2019/20 and 2020/21, Soucek outscored his expected goals (xG). Essentially, this means that he scored more goals than we should have expected him to, based on the quality of the chances. In 2021/22, he scored fewer goals than he should have.

In terms of xG per 90 minutes (xG90), that was at it’s lowest in 2021/22. Similarly, his shots taken per 90 (Sh90) dropped from 1.73 shots per 90 in 2019/20 down to 1.29 in 2021/22. It doesn’t appear to be about getting into poorer shooting positions, necessarily, because his average shot was taken at 11.9 yard from goal, which is about normal for Soucek.

If you take a look at his xG shot maps since joining the club, you can see that last season, Soucek had a lot fewer “certainties” than in previous years. Look at 2020/21. Look at the number of high-quality chances from inside the six-yard box and compare it to 2021//22. There is a stark contrast.

When it comes to goalscoring, it feels fairly clear cut that Soucek is getting fewer high-quality chances.

POSSESSION

Something I hear a lot about Soucek is his supposed lack of quality on the ball. It’s undoubtedly true. If you compare his passing statistics to those of other central midfielders in the top 5 leagues, it’s not pretty. 

But this hasn’t really changed in his time with the club. So, to the question “what’s changed”, the answer is “not a lot”.

Soucek actually had a better pass completion last year than the two years prior, without dropping off the number of passes he made. He also had a comparable number of touches per 90.

He carried the ball more, including more progressive carries, and his shot creating actions were much higher last year than in his first season.

 

ROLE

The other thing that comes up a lot, is how Soucek’s position has changed. Last season, it felt like Declan Rice was the one given licence to push up the pitch, and Soucek became the sitting midfielder. The idea was that this is what has contributed to his lessened impact in front of goal.

But something that surprised me, was looking at where he has his touches of the ball. We’ve already established that Soucek isn’t having any fewer touches of the ball, but if you look at where his touches came, that hasn’t really changed either.

In his glory days of 2020/21, 20.2% of Soucek’s touches were coming in the attacking third or the attacking penalty box. In 2021/22, this was 20.8%. So, actually, he was having more touches in attacking areas than before.

So, he’s not having fewer touches, his pass completion is increasing, he’s carrying the ball more, and he’s having just as many touches in the attacking areas where you would want him.

DEFENDING

So, if his attacking play hasn’t really changed statistically, what about his defensive outputs?

Well, his pressures per 90 have decreased season on season. His tackles attempted have decreased season on season. His aerial duel success dropped off dramatically last season too.

Over the course of the past year, Soucek’s defensive stats don’t compare well to many other central midfielders. But, similarly to his passing stats, that’s not really any different to how it was before.

WORKLOAD

The last thing to look at must be the amount of football the man has played. It’s no secret that West Ham have lacked depth in the middle of the park for a while now, and there has been a heavy reliance on Soucek and his midfield partner Declan Rice.

In 2021/22, Soucek made 51 appearances in all competitions, which is a lot. He played 4,317 minutes of first team football for West Ham, which is also a lot. But is that unusual for him? Well, sort of. Last season was the second most minutes played by Soucek in a season in his career (In 2018/19 he played 117 more minutes than in 2021/22).

It also wasn’t the season in which Soucek’s club sides were the most reliant on him to play. In 2015/16, Soucek played 97% of possible minutes for Slavia Prague. And in both 2018/19 and 2020/21 he played 91% of possible minutes. Last season, he played 85%.

So, it doesn’t seem like game time alone is what has caused Soucek’s dip in form.

What is interesting though, is the amount of time between games.

The 2021/22 season was the season with the lowest average days recovery time between matches in his career – with a game every 5.6 days. Even in the 2018/19 season where he actually played more minutes, and a higher proportion of his side’s minutes, Soucek had an average of 6.42 days between games.

That’s not necessarily a huge difference in the actual days, but there is a massive fundamental difference between Czech and English football schedules – the winter break. 

In each of his seasons in the Fortuna Liga, Soucek had a period of more than 2 months without a game, allowing him to recharge his batteries. Sure, he still played a lot of football, but it seems clear that this gave his body some time to recovery.

CONCLUSION

If the question is “What’s happened to Tomas Soucek?” then the answer appears to be that he has become fatigued.

His defensive stats have dropped off, as has his clinical finishing, but not a lot else has changed in when you compare his stats from season to season. He’s still getting into the box, he’s touching the ball more than before, but in the same positions.

The big difference that I see when I look at these figures, is that the past two seasons have been the two seasons that Soucek has had the least recovery time between games. He’s not had the winter break that he was used to in Czechia, and he’s not really had much of a rest at all.

His game hasn’t changed, the guy just needs a bit of a rest.

We Need a Left Back. But Do We Need a Left Back?

All summer, I’ve seen West Ham fans saying that we need a new left back to upgrade on Aaron Cresswell. But all summer, I’ve also seen football commentators and some other West Ham fans saying that we don’t, and that Cresswell is plenty good enough to be our starting left back.

So, which is it? As we enter our 9^th season with the Liverpudlian as our first choice left back, are we making a mistake?

WHAT’S HE GOOD AT?

Statistically speaking, you aren’t going to find many fullbacks that are as competent on the ball as Cress. He averages nearly 70 passes per game – which puts him in the top 10% of fullbacks in the top 5 leagues. He averages 5.20 progressive passes per 90, and 4.02 passes into the final third. It’s not shown in this graphic, but he has 0.85 shot creating actions from dead balls per 90 minutes. That’s insanely high. The guy has an absolute wand of a left foot, and it’s been incredibly effective for us for a long time now.

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There’s almost a complete consensus that Cresswell’s ‘legs have gone’, and that he no longer has the engine to get up and down the flank in the way he used to. I’m not so sure that’s the case.

If you look at his heat maps for the past 8 years, there isn’t a great deal of change. Last season, there is just as much red in the attacking half of the pitch as ever before, which suggest Cress is coping pretty well with the demands of getting up and down the wing.

 

And when he does get forward, that’s where we see that wand of a left peg again. According to Understat, Cresswell is above average for fullbacks in every “expected” measure apart from goals per 90. He creates more xA (expected assists) per 90 than average, more key passes per 90 than average, and is basically on average for his build up play and xG chain.

As a creative, ball playing fullback, you really aren’t going to find many better players.

In terms of West Ham players, he had the 5^th highest expected assists last season, and had the highest xA of West Ham players the year before.

 

WHAT’S HE NOT SO GOOD AT?

The guy can’t defend anymore.

He’s in the bottom 1% of all fullbacks in the top 5 leagues when it comes to attempting tackles. He’s in the top 10% of fullbacks for having people dribble past them. He doesn’t pressure the ball, and he doesn’t intercept the ball very often either.

The poor interception figures are really crucial. He’s had his injuries, and he’s not as quick as he once was, and that lack of ability to intercept the ball hints at a bigger problem – his lack of ability to adapt and read the game. It’s not rare to see Cress out of position and failing to recover. It’s also not rare to see him switch off only for a winger to steal in and score a goal.

Tackling is becoming a serious issue, as he is in the top 6% of fullbacks for fouls committed – anyone remember his red cards in the Europa League last year?

But it’s not just that. He’s in the bottom 20% of fullbacks for getting beat in aerial duels. He might win 56%, but he loses out in the air nearly once a game. Now, that might not seem like a huge deal, but we’ve seen several occasions where he’s been out leapt at the back post.

 

CONCLUSION

If you ask me, we need a left back.

Aaron Cresswell is an excellent footballer, but he's not an excellent defender. He's not even a very good defender. West Ham are still a side that need to be able to defend. The manager wants us to build from the back, and if a quarter of your back four is bad at defending, there's a big old problem there.

We're not at a stage where Cresswell needs to be got rid of, but he can't be a first choice left back from a Premier League side that wants to be competing for Europe.

I love the guy, but he's just not the guy anymore.

*NOTE: Unless stated otherwise, all stats are taken from the past year*