West Ham United vs Aston Villa

Saturday 8th November 2014

15:00

Boleyn Ground

West Ham United vs Aston Villa

Analysis

West Ham go into this game unbeaten in four league games, 4 wins in our last six, and three home wins on the spin.

Aston Villa go into this one on the back of 6 defeats in a row in the league, a goal difference of minus 14 in that time, and three away defeats in a row.

No brainer, right?

It would by very typically West Ham for us to lose to Aston Villa on Saturday. In the 20-odd years I've followed the club it's felt like a regular feature.

Key Player

If Villa are to get something from the game, they would need someone to step into the void left by key players Christian Benteke - service the first of a three match suspension - and Fabian Delph - out until December with injury.

In their absence, the key man for Villa is undoubtedly Austrian forward Andreas Weimann.

Weimann scored Villa's first goal in 6 games last time out against Tottenham to take his tally for the season to 3 in 10 games. Hardly prolific, but it is Weimann's all round game that makes him the main threat.

Not only is he Villa's top goalscorer, he has also had more shots than anyone else, and only one Villain has created more chances than him this season. The image below shows the assists and chances created by Weimann this season.

http://www.squawka.com/players/andreas-weimann/

Perhaps the element of his game that deserves the most praise though is his workrate.

Only two Villa players have won more tackles than the Austrian this season, and it is not unusual to see him hassling and harrying defenders and midfielders in possession, and also working back down the flanks to support defensively.

Weimann's style of play is actually reminiscent of West Ham's in form strike partnership of Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho, both combining an attacking threat with electric pace and serious defensive graft.

The images below shows Weimann's tackles and heat map from the game against Hull back in August. You can see that he gets all over the park, working right back to support his fullbacks, and not just pushing forward.

http://epl.squawka.com/aston-villa-vs-hull-city/

How to Stop Aston Villa

Obviously, Villa have lost a lot of games recently. In their defence, they have played a number of top sides and Spurs, so their record is in some ways defensible.

Rather than look at their defeats to the likes of Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea, I thought I'd look at their losses away at Everton and Queens Park Rangers. Everton are a side West Ham are aspiring to be like, and QPR are a side that West Ham should be outperforming in most areas.

What both sides did effectively against Villa is stop them having any time on the ball by defending from the front.

The images below show both side's tackles in the game. The left shows Everton, and right shows QPR. You can clearly see that both sides pushed high up the park, putting pressure on the Villa defence.

http://epl.squawka.com/everton-vs-aston-villa/

http://epl.squawka.com/queens-park-rangers-vs-aston-villa/

And the next pair of images show both sides average position map.

Again, you'll notice that both sides have an almost identical style. Both fullbacks (#23 & #3 for Everton, and #14 & #13 for QPR) push very high up the park. There are two central midfielders (#18 & 16, and #20 and #30) sitting deep, and then a central front three (#21, #10 & #20, and #10, #9 & #25). Finally, both sides have a 'spare' player (#14 and #24) operating slightly wider than the rest of the midfield.

http://www.whoscored.com/Matches/

http://www.whoscored.com/Matches/

Both of these formations are similar to the diamond that West Ham have been operating with. I'll take our home game against Manchester City as an example.

Jenkinson and Cresswell pushed high up the park, Noble & Song sat in the middle, Downing, Sakho & Valencia acted as an advance front three, and Amalfitano was the 'spare' man.

http://www.whoscored.com/Matches/

Continuing in this vein should be the order of the day for West Ham. Pushing high up the park has proven effective for two of Villa's recent conquerors, and if we perform as we can, we can make it a third.

Weakness

Aside from the fact that they are struggling in front of goal at the moment, I think Villa have an obvious weakness that opposition managers have been exploiting.

I've already spoken about the fact that Everton and QPR pushed up the pitch and hurried Villa's defenders. It isn't particularly unusual for Everton to approach the game like this, but it was a definite change in approach from QPR.

I think the reason Harry Redknapp altered his side's approach is because Villa are one of the poorer sides in distributing from the back.

This season, Villa have the third worse pass accuracy for defenders only, with their defenders completing just 76.8% of their passes. This isn't a horrendous rate overall, and is actually only just short of their overall success rate of 78%.

However, you would tend to expect defenders - particularly centre halves - to have a decent pass completion rate. The league average for defenders is currently 82.5% completion. 

The image below shows a chart of the pass completion for defenders only.

What makes this statistic particularly worrying for Villa, is that their defenders attempt an average of 131 passes per game this season - and have actually attempted 37.1% of the overall attempted passes for the side.

This suggests that their defence has a fair chunk of the ball, and that there will be opportunities to nick possession from the high up the park - be it via tackles, interceptions or blocks.

Conclusion

To be honest, I hate games like this.

It's not often we are expected to win, and coming up against a side in such poor form makes us the clear favourites. In years gone by, this would be an obvious banana skin for West Ham. This season? Maybe not.

But doesn't that extra dose of hope, optimism and expectation just make the fear in the pit of your stomach swell? You can't have been a Hammer for long if it doesn't!

 Head to Head 

36% Head to Head Win % 35%

39 Won 38

32 Drawn 32

38 Lost 39

168 Goals Scored 168

168 Goals Conceded 168

 Recent Form (excl. Friendlies) 

W L W W W D Last 6 L L L L L L

13 Goals Scored 1

7 Goals Conceded 15

  

L L L W W W Home/Away Form L W W L L L

9 Goals Scored 2

7 Goals Conceded 11

  

 Form Player (excl. GK) 

 (Last 6 League) 

Stewart Downing - Tom Cleverley

6 Appearances 6

540 Minutes Played 540

  

214 Sum Squawka Performance Score 119

36 Average Squawka Performance Rating 20

  

241 Passes Attempted 296

200 Completed 262

83% Success Rate 89%

  

15 Chances Created 7

2 Assists 0

  

9 Attempts on Goal 2

3 On Target 2

1 Goals 0

11 Take Ons Attempted 4

6 Successful Take Ons 2

55% Success Rate 50%

  

7 Tackles Made 29

3 Successful Tackles 16

43% Success Rate 55%

  

4 Interceptions 9

11 Clearances 7

0 Blocks 1

3 Defensive Actions Per Game 3

  

2 Aerial Duels 8

1 Won 3

50% Success Rate 38%

0 Defensive Errors 0

0 Leading to a Goal 0

  

 Last Meeting 

11 May 2014

1-0 Kevin Nolan 46'

2-0 Kevin Nolan 48'

  

4-2-3-1 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1

Adrián - Brad Guzan

Guy Demel - Matthew Lowton (56')

James Collins - Nathan Baker

James Tomkins - Ciaran Clark

George McCartney - Ryan Bertrand (74')

Mark Noble - Ashley Westwood

Matthew Taylor - Fabian Delph

Stewart Downing - Andreas Weimann (71')

(68') Kevin Nolan - Leandro Bacuna

(74') Matt Jarvis - Gabriel Agbonlahor

(46') Carlton Cole - Christian Benteke

 Subs 

Jussi Jääskeläinen - Jed Steer

(74') Winston Reid - Joe Bennett (74')

Roger Johnson - Karim El Ahmadi

Pablo Armero - Yacouba Sylla

Jack Collison - Marc Albrighton (56')

(68') Antonio Nocerino - Nicklas Helenius

(46') Marco Borriello - Grant Holt (71')

 Absentees 

 Injured/Doubtful 

West Ham United: Winston Reid, Guy Demel, Andy Carroll

Aston Villa: Alan Hutton, Fabian Delph, Libor Kozak

 Suspensions 

West Ham United: 

Aston Villa: Christian Benteke

  Opposition Last Time Out (League)

vs Tottenham Hotspur

 Goals Scored: 1

 Goals Conceded: 2

 Starting Formation: 4-3-2-1

  Brad Guzan

  Matthew Lowton  Ron Vlaar  Nathan Baker  Aly Cissokho (92')

  Carlos Sánchez  Tom Cleverley  Ashley Westwood

  Charles N'Zogbia (74')  Andreas Weimann (85')

  Christian Benteke (S/O 65')

 subs:

Sha Given

  Ciaran Clark

  Kieran Richardson (85')

  Joe Cole

  Jack Grealish

  Gabriel Agbonlahor (74')

  Darren Bent (92')

  

 Best Player: Matthew Lowton(SR: 7.5)

 Worst Player: Christian Benteke(SR: 5.6)

  

 Top 5's (Min 5 Apps) 

 Goals Scored 

Diafra Sakho 6 - 3 Andreas Weimann

Enner Valencia 3 - 2 Gabriel Agbonlahor

Carlton Cole 2 -                          

Morgan Amalfitano 2 -                                    

Stewart Downing 2 -                                 

 Assists 

Stewart Downing 4 - 1 Charles N'Zogbia

James Tomkins 2 - 1 Kieran Richardson

Aaron Cresswell 2 - 1 Andreas Weimann

Enner Valencia 2 -                                

Mauro Zárate 1 -                             

 Passing Accuracy 

Mark Noble 87% - 89% Tom Cleverley

Stewart Downing 84% - 83% Ashley Westwood

Carl Jenkinson 84% - 83% Fabian Delph

Winston Reid 83% - 83% Philippe Senderos

James Tomkins 81% - 81% Ron Vlaar

 Chances Created per 90 

Stewart Downing 2.41 - 1.71 Ashley Westwood

Aaron Cresswell 1.3 - 1.01 Tom Cleverley

Mark Noble 1.29 - 1 Darren Bent

Alex Song 1 - 0.99 Charles N'Zogbia

Diafra Sakho 0.65 - 0.92 Andreas Weimann

 Successful Dribbles per 90 

Enner Valencia 1.7 - 2.57 Fabian Delph

Alex Song 1 - 1.11 Gabriel Agbonlahor

Morgan Amalfitano 0.94 - 0.99 Charles N'Zogbia

Diafra Sakho 0.81 - 0.88 Alan Hutton

Cheikhou Kouyaté 0.8 - 0.55 Carlos Sanchez

 Tackles Won per 90 

Cheikhou Kouyaté 2.87 - 2.59 Tom Cleverley

Alex Song 2.84 - 1.91 Carlos Sanchez

Morgan Amalfitano 2.58 - 1.75 Alan Hutton

Mark Noble 1.88 - 1.31 Andreas Weimann

Carl Jenkinson 1.88 - 1.13 Nathan Baker

 Aerial Duels Won per 90 

James Collins 4.67 - 3.01 Carlos Sanchez

James Tomkins 3.71 - 2.71 Nathan Baker

Diafra Sakho 3.55 - 2 Darren Bent

Winston Reid 3.35 - 1.73 Gabriel Agbonlahor

Cheikhou Kouyaté 3.03 - 1.72 Aly Cissokho

 Manager 

Sam Allardyce - Paul Lambert

19/10/1954 DOB 07/08/1969

60 Age 45

  

 Playing Career 

Bolton Wanderers Main Club St. Mirren

231 Appearances 227

24 Goals 14

  

9 Total Clubs 5

512 Appearances 574

43 Goals 35

  

England National Team Scotland

0 Caps 40

  

 Managerial Career 

Preston North End First Managerial Role Livingston

30/09/1992 Start Date 01/06/2005

22y 1m 8d Experience 9y 5m 7d

  

7 Sides Managed 5

2 League Titles 1

0 Cup Wins 0

  

39.9% Win % 39.7%

354 Won 168

232 Drawn 98

301 Lost 157

  

 Longest Role (excl. Current) 

Bolton Wanderers Club Norwich City

19/10/1999 Appointed 18/08/2009

29/04/2007 Left 02/06/2012

7y 6m 9d Time in Charge 2y 9m 14d

0 League Titles 1

0 Cup Wins 0

  

41.2% Win % 49.2%

153 Won 70

104 Drawn 35

114 Lost 37

  

 Current Club 

01/06/2011 Appointed 02/06/2012

3y 5m 8d Time in Charge 2y 5m 6d

  

0 League Titles 0

0 Cup Wins 0

  

40.1% Win % 30.6%

59 Won 30

34 Drawn 20

54 Lost 48

West Ham United vs Aston Villa

Saturday 2nd November

15:00

Boleyn Ground

West Ham United vs Aston Villa

Analysis

After a hard fought victory over Burnley in the Capital One Cup in midweek, West Ham now welcome Aston Villa to the Boleyn Ground.

Villa haven't been in the best of form, losing their last two games, and failing to score in their last three matches.

Part of this could be down to talisman Christian Benteke's recent dry spell. The Belgian scored four goals in his opening four games this season, but hasn't scored in three games now - missing a penalty last weekend against Everton.

Despite this, Benteke is the obvious dangerman for Villa. In his debut Premier League season he bagged 19 goals in 34 appearances, and almost single handedly keeping the Villains away from relegation. In fact, the Belgian scored a massive 40% of his sides goals.

On his day, Benteke can be unplayable. Against Arsenal on the opening day of the season, he bagged a brace, winning an uncharacteristically high 60% of his aerial duels, bullying and battering the Arsenal centre backs.

Provided either James Collins or James Tomkins recover from knocks in time to line up against Benteke this weekend, he should have no such joy against a West Ham back line that has managed 5 clean sheets so far this season.

Below is Benteke's heat map from that Arsenal game. What is clear, is that he doesn't simply hang around the penalty area picking up scraps. He is happy to drop deep to affect play, often carving out his own opportunities.

http://epl.squawka.com/arsenal-vs-aston-villa/

One of the ways to limit the dangers that Benteke poses, is to cut off his supply line.

Under Paul Lambert, Aston Villa have been set up to soak up pressure from the opposition, and then hit on the counter attack. Opposition fullbacks often commit forward, leaving space for the pacy Benteke, Gabriel Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann to attack.

Everton coped with this tactic very well last weekend.

The image below shows Everton's attempted tackles. The Toffees attempted 26 tackles against Villa (winning 17) with 22 of those coming within their own half. The ability of the Everton defenders and midfield to sit in position and deal with the counter attack was typified by Gareth Barry, who stayed in the deep defensive midfield role, breaking up play.

Barry's importance in keeping Villa quiet suggests that Mark Noble will have an important role to play on Saturday. Noble has attacked with an increased swagger this season, driving the ball forward at any given opportunity to support the forwards. But he will need to display discipline as the main holding midfielder, breaking up play, and stopping Villa coming through the centre of the park on the break.

http://epl.squawka.com/aston-villa-vs-everton/

But Noble and his midfield colleagues will have more to deal with than just stopping the break. Villa also possess a number of gifted passers of the ball in the middle of the park.

Last season, Ashley Westwood took the plaudits as a patient, economical passer of the ball, but this year the star has been Fabian Delph.

The former Leeds United captain has completed an impressive 82% of his passes this season, and has made the most passes of all Villa players. Delph currently averages 48 passes per game in the league this season.

Whilst Villa and Delph are good in possession, happy to keep hold of the ball in the middle of the park, they do rely on the counter attack to create chances. As already touched upon, Everton dealt with the break very well on Saturday afternoon. The image below show's Delph's attempted passes from that day. What you can see, is that the Englishman completed the majority of passes in the middle third of the pitch.

When moving into the attacking third, his success levels fell. You can see that the majority of his failed passes were balls toward the penalty area, whilst the one chance he did create came on the break, with the one yellow area right in the centre circle.

The final area to mention, is Villa's defence.

This season, Ron Vlaar has been the stand out defender in their back line, but he has yet to be really tested in the way West Ham will test him.

Whilst Vlaar's dual success looks very impressive - 89% of tackles won, 60% of headed duels won - he has only been involved in a small number of headed duels this season.

Should Carlton Cole come into the side at the weekend, Vlaar and his colleagues will have a completely different style of play to come up against. And if Cole doesn't come into the side, it is fair to assume that the 4-6-0 formation would continue, meaning the Villa defence will again play against a different style of play.

http://www.squawka.com/players/ron-vlaar

In my opinion, West Ham are a better side than Aston Villa, and we should win this game.

Our home form has been poor recently - although we can point to some unfortunate results, rather than particularly poor performances - and this is the game that we need to get back on track.

For me, the key is that the back four, and the holding midfielder remain disciplined. Villa have a number of very quick, direct players who will run at you and cause mayhem. West Ham must remain disciplined to counter this.

In attack, we are capable of hurting Villa. Ron Vlaar has been the outstanding defender for them, but his aerial prowess if still questionable, remaining mostly unchallenged this season. If West Ham can get the ball into the right areas, we can hurt Villa.

There is no reason why we can't win this game, and I think we will.

 Head to Head 

36% Head to Head Win % 36%

38 Won 38

31 Drawn 31

38 Lost 38

166 Goals Scored 168

168 Goals Conceded 166

 Recent Form 

W L W L D W Last 6 W L W D L L

9 Goals Scored 4

6 Goals Conceded 10

  

W W L L W L Home/Away Form W D W L W D

10 Goals Scored 9

10 Goals Conceded 6

  

 Form Player (Last 6 League) 

Winston Reid - Ron Vlaar

6 Appearances 6

540 Minutes Played 540

  

225 Sum Squawka Performance Score 156

38 Average Squawka Performance Rating 26

  

229 Passes Attempted 214

168 Completed 180

73% Success Rate 84%

  

0 Chances Created 1

0 Assists 0

  

2 Attempts on Goal 3

1 On Target 1

1 Goals 0

  

17 Tackles Made 11

13 Successful Tackles 10

76% Success Rate 91%

  

21 Interceptions 12

45 Clearances 48

7 Blocks 2

12 Defensive Actions Per Game 10

  

24 Aerial Duels 9

16 Won 5

67% Success Rate 56%

0 Defensive Errors 0

0 Leading to a Goal 0

  

 Last Meeting 

10 February 2013

1-0 Christian Benteke 74'

2-0 Charles N'Zogbia 78'

2-1 Ashley Westwood OG 87'

4-2-3-1 Starting Formation 4-2-3-1

Jussi Jääskeläinen - Brad Guzan

Joey O'Brien (24') - Matthew Lowton

James Tomkins - Ron Vlaar

Winston Reid - Ciaran Clark

Emanuel Pogatetz - Nathan Baker

Mark Noble (76') - Ashley Westwood

Mohamed Diamé - Fabian Delph

Joe Cole - (63') Jordan Bowery

Kevin Nolan - (85') Charles N'Zogbia

Matthew Taylor (67') - (64') Andreas Weimann

Andy Carroll - Christian Benteke

 Subs 

Raphael Spiegel - Shay Given

Guy Demel (24') - Joe Bennett

Matt Jarvis - Barry Bannan

Gary O'Neil - Brett Holman

Ricardo Vâz Te (67') - (85') Yacouba Sylla

Carlton Cole (76') - (63') Darren Bent

Marouane Chamakh - (64') Simon Dawkins

 Absentees 

 Injured/Doubtful 

West Ham United: James Collins, James Tomkins, George McCartney, Alou Diarra, Matthew Taylor, Ricardo Vâz Te, Andy Carroll

Aston Villa: Jores Okore, Gary Gardner, Marc Albrighton, Charles N'Zogbia

 Suspensions 

West Ham United: n/a

Aston Villa: n/a

  Opposition Last Time Out

vs Everton

 Goals Scored: 0

 Goals Conceded: 2

 Starting Formation: 4-4-2

  Brad Guzan

  Leandro Bacuna  Ron Vlaar  Nathan Baker  Antonio Luna (45')

  Andreas Weimann  Ashley Westwood  Fabian Delph  Gabriel Agbonlahor

  Aleksandar Tonev (77')  Christian Benteke

 subs: 

  Jed Steer

  Ciaran Clark (45')

  Karim El Ahmadi

  Nicklas Helenius (77')

  Yacouba Sylla

  Libor Kozak

  Matthew Lowton

 Best Player: Ron Vlaar

 Squawka Rating: 22

 Worst Player: Brad Guzan

 Squawka Rating: -23

  

 Top 5's (Min 3 Apps) 

 Goals Scored 

Ravel Morrison 2 - 4 Christian Benteke

Ricardo Vâz Te 2 - 1 Leandro Bacuna

Joe Cole 1 - 1 Karim El Ahmadi

Mark Noble 1 - 1 Libor Kozak

Kevin Nolan 1 - 1 Antonio Luna

 Assists 

Matt Jarvis 2 - 2 Gabriel Agbonlahor

Mohamed Diamé 1 - 1 Leandro Bacuna

Ravel Morrison 1 - 1 Brad Guzan

Mark Noble 1 - 1 Andreas Weimann

Kevin Nolan 1 - 1 Ashley Westwood

 Passing Accuracy 

Stewart Downing 85% - 88% Jores Okore

Ravel Morrison 83% - 85% Nicklas Helenius

Mark Noble 82% - 85% Aleksandar Tonev

Kevin Nolan 80% - 84% Ron Vlaar

Joey O'Brien 79% - 84% Karim El Ahmadi

 Chances Created per game 

Stewart Downing 2.3 - 1.7 Christian Benteke

Mark Noble 2.2 - 1.6 Gabriel Agbonlahor

Matt Jarvis 1.3 - 1.3 Matthew Lowton

Rǎzvan Raţ 1 - 1.3 Ashley Westwood

Modibo Maïga 0.8 - 1 Andreas Weimann

 Successful Dribbles per game 

Mohamed Diamé 2.2 - 2.9 Fabian Delph

Mark Noble 1.7 - 1.4 Gabriel Agbonlahor

Ravel Morrison 1.4 - 1 Leandro Bacuna

Joe Cole 0.8 - 1 Antonio Luna

Modibo Maïga 0.7 - 0.8 Andreas Weimann

 Tackles per game 

Mohamed Diamé 2.9 - 4.1 Karim El Ahmadi

Mark Noble 2.6 - 3.7 Fabian Delph

Winston Reid 2.3 - 2.9 Antonio Luna

James Collins 2.2 - 2.1 Leandro Bacuna

Kevin Nolan 2.2 - 2 Matthew Lowton

 Aerial Duels Won per game 

Modibo Maïga 6.2 - 7.7 Christian Benteke

James Collins 3.3 - 3.2 Libor Kozak

James Tomkins 3.3 - 2.5 Nathan Baker

Winston Reid 3.2 - 2 Ciaran Clark

Joey O'Brien 1.4 - 1.6 Fabian Delph

 Manager 

Sam Allardyce - Paul Lambert

42.3% Current Club Win % 35.0%

44 Won 20

28 Drawn 12

32 Lost 25

  

40.0% Managerial Career Win % 41.3%

338 Won 158

227 Drawn 90

279 Lost 134

2 League Titles 1

0 Cup Wins 0