#5
James Tomkins
DOB: 29/03/1989
Position: Defender
West Ham United Career
Appearances: 168
Goals: 7
Debut: 22/03/2008 vs Everton
Debut Goal: 04/04/2009 vs Sunderland
Analysis
I’ve
heard and read a lot about Phil Jones in the past couple of weeks, and how his
versatility is hurting him. The consensus among journalists, supports and
ex-players is that the England international needs to settle into one position
for club and country before we see the best of him.
This
got me thinking.
The
general opinion on James Tomkins amongst the opinions I read is that he has the
ability to be a top class (world class?) defender one day, but he suffers from
inconsistency and concentration errors. This kind of fits with what I have
always felt about the academy graduate and his performances.
But
after reading about Jones recently, I wondered to myself how much Tomkins’
versatility has hindered his progress. In our Championship season, Tomkins was
a regular at centre back, playing to the right of either Winston Reid or
Abdoulaye Faye. However, since we regained our Premier League status in 2012,
Tomkins has been a bit more of a utility player.
In
the past season and a half, Tomkins has made 41 league appearances. 30 of these
have been at centre back, 6 at rightback, and 5 (inexplicably) in midfield. On
paper, it seems that he has made the vast majority (73%) of his appearances in
his preferred position.
However, we all know that centre backs prefer one side or the other. Reid always plays on the left, James Collins always plays on the right. This isn’t just confined to West Ham though. John Terry and Nemanja Vidic have been formidable defenders on the left hand side of the central pairing, while Rio Ferdinand and Per Mertesacker always appear on the right hand side.
However, we all know that centre backs prefer one side or the other. Reid always plays on the left, James Collins always plays on the right. This isn’t just confined to West Ham though. John Terry and Nemanja Vidic have been formidable defenders on the left hand side of the central pairing, while Rio Ferdinand and Per Mertesacker always appear on the right hand side.
Tomkins
preference appears to be on the right. When he plays with Reid, he plays there.
However, when James Collins (or more recently Roger Johnson) is playing
alongside the former England under-21 defender, Tomkins moves across to the
left. The logic behind this is seemingly that Tomkins is recognised as a better
footballer than the other two (technically speaking), and is seen as being more
adaptable to an unfamiliar position.
In
the past, Tomkins has been in the side alongside Reid and performing admirably,
until Reid is sidelined for a period of time. This tends to result in Collins
stepping back into the side alongside Tomkins, and Tomkins moving to the left
hand side of the two. Tomkins performance levels then appear to tail off, and
when Reid returns from absence, Collins keeps his place in the side.
My
belief is that the regular switch in position, however minor on paper, lead to
Tomkins struggling to maintain his form.
According
to Squawka’s performance matrix, Tomkins best performances do come when in his
favoured RCB slot. On average, his performances in this position have
comfortably the best performance score of his ratings in each position (19.32),
as displayed by the graph below. It is also the only position in which Tomkins
averages a higher rating than his overall average for his 41 appearances
(15.18).
However,
despite performing better on average over the course of time on the right hand
side, there do seem to be exceptions to the rule. According to performance
score, Tomkins best five performances since the start of last season have come
in a variety of positions:
1. vs Fulham (30.11.2013); LCB; 65.86
2. vs Wigan Athletich (27.10.2012); RB; 60.88
3. vs Swansea City (02.02.2013); RCB; 50.37
4. vs Tottenham Hotspur (25.11.2012); RCB; 43.43
5. vs Sunderland (14.12.2013); LCB; 36.77
Similarly,
his worst five performances have also come in a mixture of positions:
1. vs West Bromwich Albion (16.12.2012); RB; -30.12
2. vs Manchester United (21.12.2013); RCB; -14.00
3. vs Cardiff City (11.01.2014); LCB; -11.50
4. vs Arsenal (26.12.2013); RCB; -9.00
5. vs Manchester City (19.10.2013); RCB; -5.63
What
this suggests, is that Tomkins has the ability to perform (or not perform) in
any position, highlighting a possible lack of consistency. However, his average
performance level is greater in his favoured RCB position than any other.
This is highlighted by the lower range of performance scores in that position than others – although central midfield provides the smallest range of performance scores, this can be largely discounted by the small number of minutes played in this position (216), compared to others (RCB = 1447, LCB = 903, RB = 388).
This is highlighted by the lower range of performance scores in that position than others – although central midfield provides the smallest range of performance scores, this can be largely discounted by the small number of minutes played in this position (216), compared to others (RCB = 1447, LCB = 903, RB = 388).
The
chart below demonstrates the differences in his performance levels by position.
What you can see in the box is that Tomkins’ average performances at RCB are
consistently higher than any other position.
On average, his best, median and worst performances are better at RCB than in any other position, demonstrating an increased level of consistency. The top whisker, though, tells us that we are less likely to see exceptional performances from Tomkins when he plays in this position. Similarly, the lower whisker is shorter than most of the other positions, demonstrating that you are less likely to see an appalling performance at RCB than elsewhere.
On average, his best, median and worst performances are better at RCB than in any other position, demonstrating an increased level of consistency. The top whisker, though, tells us that we are less likely to see exceptional performances from Tomkins when he plays in this position. Similarly, the lower whisker is shorter than most of the other positions, demonstrating that you are less likely to see an appalling performance at RCB than elsewhere.
Based
on this information, we could suggest that Tomkins is more likely to produce
his average performances at RCB than when he plays elsewhere, and that his
average in this position is much higher than his average elsewhere.
Not
only does analysis of the Squawka performance score suggest that Tomkins best
performances come at the right side of a centre back pairing, but it also shows
the impact that positional changes have on his performance.
The
chart below shows the average performance score that Tomkins posts per
position, compared with the average score for that position when he has just
switch from another role (i.e. against Norwich this season was the first time
he had switched from right to left).
As expected, his performance tends to be significantly worse in those games where he has just changed position. The anomaly here is, again, when he plays in midfield.
As expected, his performance tends to be significantly worse in those games where he has just changed position. The anomaly here is, again, when he plays in midfield.
Aside
from the mathematical, qualitative data, we can also see this sort of
conclusion when we look at Tomkins’ performance data.
One
of the most interesting stats I’ve found whilst looking into Tomkins’
performances over the past two seasons, is that he gives away a foul on average
once every 114 minutes in the Premier League.
What is particularly interesting about this is that there is a perception that Tomkins regularly gives away silly fouls, through a lack of concentration or ball watching. But when Tomkins is playing in his preferred position, he concedes fouls far less than on the other side of the central two.
What is particularly interesting about this is that there is a perception that Tomkins regularly gives away silly fouls, through a lack of concentration or ball watching. But when Tomkins is playing in his preferred position, he concedes fouls far less than on the other side of the central two.
When
playing on the left hand side of the defence, Tomkins concedes a foul once
every 82 minutes. This is the only position in which he concedes a foul more
regularly than once every 90 minutes. When playing on the right, he concedes a
foul once every 121 minutes. This means, that when Tomkins is playing on the
right hand side of the defence, it takes him an average of 39 minutes longer to
concede a foul than when he is playing on the left.
Once
again, this seems to support the assertion that the versatility that we
perceive Tomkins to have, may not actually be based in fact. His technique is
required to change when playing on the other side of the field, his positioning
would also need to adapt. The fact that he fouls more regularly on the left,
suggests that his technique and positioning are significantly weaker in this
position.
This
inference is supported by Tomkins tackle success rate by position. When playing
on the right centre of the defence, Tomkins is successful with 74% of his
tackles. When moving to the left hand side, however, his success rate drops to
just 50%.
However,
there are some results that I didn’t expect to see. For example, 17% of Tomkins
attempted passes are long balls. The position from which he plays the highest
proportion of long balls is his favoured right centre back (20%).
On the left hand side, he plays just 16% of his passes as long balls. This seems to contradict the opinion that Tomkins is the ball player in our defence, particularly as the rate spikes when he moves into his ‘best’ role.
On the left hand side, he plays just 16% of his passes as long balls. This seems to contradict the opinion that Tomkins is the ball player in our defence, particularly as the rate spikes when he moves into his ‘best’ role.
Another
surprise was that the team seem to concede fewer goals when Tomkins is on the
left hand side. Playing in this role, Tomkins sees his defence concede once
every 65 minutes – the least regular of all positions played in the past two
seasons. In the RCB role, a goal is conceded once every 58 minutes, still above
his overall average. The rate worsens considerably with Tomkins completely out
of position, one conceded every 55 minutes that he plays at right back, and
once every 36 minutes when he steps forward into midfield.
Obviously
Tomkins performance isn’t only influenced by his position on the pitch; his
teammates can have a huge influence here. When playing in a central two, each
half is reliant on the other to perform to the best of their ability.
Something
that is noticeable in Tomkins’ performances is the change in emphasis dependant
on his defensive partner. When playing with Winston Reid there seems to be a
calming influence at the back, whilst many have remarked upon how hectic and
rushed we can seem when Tomkins and Collins are paired together. This is, once
again, borne out by the facts. When playing with Reid, Tomkins makes a
clearance once every 8.73 minutes, compared to the more frequent rate of 6.98
minutes when paired with Collins.
What
all of this suggests to me, is that James Tomkins isn’t as versatile as we
think.
Despite
being the only centre half in our ranks who is used in more than one position,
his performances outside of his best right central defence suggest that he is
far less effective when moved. Statistically, his performances in that position
average at a higher level than in the other roles we have seen him dropped into
over the past couple of seasons.
I
suppose my opinion comes brings us full circle. Like Phil Jones, James Tomkins
needs to be deployed in one role, in one position. We all saw in our
Championship season how a consistent selection process worked wonders for both
Tomkins and Reid. We need to see this again if we ever want the man from Basildon
to achieve his full potential.
