Wednesday 26th March 2014
19:45
Boleyn Ground
West Ham United vs Hull City
Analysis
It's not so much a 'save our season' game as such, more a 'it'd really help if we won this game' game, but that's not quite as snappy.
After four fantastic victories on the bounce, we've now had three pathetic defeats, during which we've created a woefully inadequate 14 attempts on goal, and an embarrassing four shots on target.
And now we turn our attention to a Hull City side who have been in fine recent form, and all but secured Premier League football for next season with their comfortable two nil victory over West Brom at the weekend.
Key Player
I had a bit of a difficult time picking Hull's key player. Midfielders Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore have been a consistent, calming presence in the middle of the park this season. Strikers Shane Long and Nikica Jelavic have come in and formed a lively, promising partnership since January, and goalkeeper Allan McGregor has single handedly won games for the Tigers this season.
But the player I believe to be central to Hull is centre half Curtis Davies.
After spending the previous two seasons plying his trade in the Championship with Birmingham City, Davies has readapted to the Premier League as if he'd never been away.
So far this season, Davies has made a remarkable 248 clearances, 27 blocks, and 83 interceptions. He's also won 64% of his 201 aerial duels, and 55% of his 84 tackles.
Not content with being a defensive rock, he's also bagged himself a couple of goals, create four chances, and even managed an assist (for Shane Long last weekend).
http://www.squawka.com/comparison-matrix
After four fantastic victories on the bounce, we've now had three pathetic defeats, during which we've created a woefully inadequate 14 attempts on goal, and an embarrassing four shots on target.
And now we turn our attention to a Hull City side who have been in fine recent form, and all but secured Premier League football for next season with their comfortable two nil victory over West Brom at the weekend.
Key Player
I had a bit of a difficult time picking Hull's key player. Midfielders Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore have been a consistent, calming presence in the middle of the park this season. Strikers Shane Long and Nikica Jelavic have come in and formed a lively, promising partnership since January, and goalkeeper Allan McGregor has single handedly won games for the Tigers this season.
But the player I believe to be central to Hull is centre half Curtis Davies.
After spending the previous two seasons plying his trade in the Championship with Birmingham City, Davies has readapted to the Premier League as if he'd never been away.
So far this season, Davies has made a remarkable 248 clearances, 27 blocks, and 83 interceptions. He's also won 64% of his 201 aerial duels, and 55% of his 84 tackles.
Not content with being a defensive rock, he's also bagged himself a couple of goals, create four chances, and even managed an assist (for Shane Long last weekend).
How do you stop them?
According to whoscored.com, Hull City's main weakness this season has been their ability to keep possession. Despite being able to call upon ball players like Huddlestone and Koren, Steve Bruce's side have a difficult time in possession when pressed.
By hassling and harrying the Tigers' defence and midfield, teams have often been able to render them unable to create chances and score goals.
Excluding the recent defeat to Manchester City, the past two occasions that Hull have failed to score in the league have come against Southampton and Crystal Palace. Both teams put a lot of pressure on the ball all over the pitch, causing mistakes and lack of composure.
Against Southampton, Hull posted a pass completion rate of just 64%, and resorted to a number of long balls into the box - failing to play to the strengths of their new striker partnership. The image below shows the tackles Southampton attempted. As you can see, they attempted an astonishing 41 tackles all over the park, often pressurising the Hull defence.
Against Palace, Hull still managed an impressive pass completion of 84% and controlled 55% possession in the game. However, despite the overall dominance, they created just five chances from open play, and were largely restricted to attempts from range.
The image below shows Palace's tackles. Tony Pulis' side attempted less tackles from the Saints, and fewer in more advanced positions, but put in plenty in the middle of the park, forcing the likes of Huddlestone and Livermore to offload the ball without creating too much danger. Between them, the two England midfielders managed to create just the one chance on the day.
Weakest Link
It feels a little strange saying it, but Hull City don't really have a weak link. They have a very strong spine to their side in McGregor, Davies, Huddlestone, Livermore, Long and Jelavic, and have been able to rotate around their key players, and be creative in their approach to games.
Steve Bruce is probably the manager to have been the most tactically flexible this season, with his side trying out 5 distinctly varied formations. His favourites though are the 4-4-2 and 3-5-2 formations that allow him to go with a traditional strike partnership.
Recently, Hull have been playing the 3-5-2, and it seems likely that this is how they will line up against West Ham - particularly if Long recovers from a knock to make the starting line up. This formation has been very successful for them this season, but it also the approach that offers the opposition the most opportunity to test Hull's defence.
3-5-2 relies on wingbacks with great energy and enthusiasm, which Hull have in Ahmed Elmohamady and Liam Rosenior. However, to patrol the flanks alone. As the wingbacks bomb forward, they often leave large areas of space exposed for the opposition to exploit.
Perhaps the best example of this was the recent 4-1 demolition at the hands of Newcastle United. If you look at the average position maps below, you'll see that Rosenior (#2) and Elhamaday (#27) pushed high up the park to support the attack. In response, Moussa Sissoko (#7) and Yoan Gouffran (#11) had the opportunity to push on into space.
Leaving Sissoko this amount of space allowed for the Frenchman to put in (undoubtedly) his best performance of this season, and probably his best in a Newcastle shirt since his match winning performance against Chelsea last season, bagging himself two goals against the Tigers.
Below is his heat map from that game. He had some defensive work to do, helping Mathieu Debuchy deal with Rosenior. but he also had masses of space to exploit going forward, something he did with aplomb.
If West Ham are to take the three points that would pretty much see us safe this season, we need to keep Hull's strike partnership quiet, pressurise the ball in the middle of the park, and get our wingers involved in the space behind the fullbacks.
If we do this, there's no reason we shouldn't win.
Head to Head
40% Head to Head Win % 26%
17 Won 11
14 Drawn 14
11 Lost 17
63 Goals Scored 48
48 Goals Conceded 63
Recent Form
W W W L L L Last 6 W W L W L W
8 Goals Scored 12
7 Goals Conceded 8
L L W W W L Home/Away Form L W L W D W
8 Goals Scored 9
9 Goals Conceded 3
Form Player (excl. GK)
(Last 6 League)
James Tomkiins - Curtis Davies
6 Appearances 6
540 Minutes Played 536
117 Sum Squawka Performance Score 237
20 Average Squawka Performance Rating 40
136 Passes Attempted 184
98 Completed 141
72% Success Rate 77%
0 Chances Created 2
0 Assists 1
1 Attempts on Goal 4
0 On Target 1
0 Goals 1
0 Take Ons Attempted 1
0 Successful Take Ons 1
0% Success Rate 100%
9 Tackles Made 14
5 Successful Tackles 7
56% Success Rate 50%
15 Interceptions 22
58 Clearances 61
4 Blocks 6
13 Defensive Actions Per Game 15
31 Aerial Duels 59
18 Won 37
58% Success Rate 63%
0 Defensive Errors 0
0 Leading to a Goal 0
Last Meeting
28 September 2013
1-0 Robbie Brady 12'
4-2-3-1 Starting Formation 4-4-2
Jussi Jääskeläinen - Allan McGregor
Joey O'Brien - Liam Rosenior
James Tomkins - Abdoulaye Faye
Winston Reid - Curtis Davies
Rǎzvan Raţ - Maynor Figueroa
Mark Noble - Ahmed Elmohamady
Ravel Morrison - Tom Huddlestone
(71') Mohamed Diamé - Jake Livermore
Kevin Nolan - Robbie Brady (80')
(71') Matt Jarvis - Sone Aluko (89')
(59') Modibo Maïga - Danny Graham (71')
Subs
Adrián - Steve Harper
James Collins - Alex Bruce
Guy Demel - Paul McShane
Matthew Taylor - David Meyler (80')
(71') Ricardo Vâz Te - George Boyd (89')
(71') Stewart Downing - Stephen Quinn
(59') Mladen Petrić - Yannick Sagbo (71')
Absentees
Injured/Doubtful
West Ham United: Joey O'Brien, Marco Borriello
Hull City: Joe Dudgeon, Paul McShane, Robbie Brady, Shane Long
Suspensions
West Ham United: n/a
Hull City: n/a
Opposition Last Time Out (League)
vs West Bromwich Albion
Goals Scored: 2
Goals Conceded: 0
Starting Formation: 4-4-2
Allan McGregor
Ahmed Elmohamady James Chester Curtis Davies Liam Rosenior
Sone Aluko (61') Tom Huddlestone Jake Livermore David Meyler
Shane Long (77') Nikica Jelavic (84')
subs:
Steve Harper
Maynor Figueroa
Alex Bruce
Robert Koren (61')
Stephen Quinn (77')
Matty Fryatt
Yannick Sagbo (84')
Best Player: Curtis Davies
Squawka Rating: 90
Worst Player: Sone Aluko
Squawka Rating: -22
Top 5's (Min 5 Apps)
Goals Scored
Kevin Nolan 7 - 3 Shane Long
Carlton Cole 6 - 3 Nikica Jelavic
Joe Cole 3 - 3 Robbie Brady
Ravel Morrison* 3 - 3 Jake Livermore
Mohamed Diamé 3 - 2 Robert Koren
Assists
Kevin Nolan 5 - 4 Jake Livermore
Andy Carroll 3 - 2 Sone Aluko
Matt Jarvis 3 - 2 Tom Huddlestone
Mark Noble 3 - 2 Ahmed Elmohamady
Stewart Downing 2 - 1 Shane Long
Passing Accuracy
Mark Noble 83% - 86% Sone Aluko
Stewart Downing 81% - 85% Matty Fryatt
Joe Cole 80% - 85% Stephen Quinn
Joey O'Brien 79% - 83% Jake Livermore
Kevin Nolan 78% - 82% Robert Koren
Chances Created per game
Stewart Downing 1.8 - 1.7 Tom Huddlestone
Mark Noble 1.6 - 1.4 Shane Long
Matt Jarvis 1 - 1.1 Jake Livermore
Kevin Nolan 0.9 - 1.1 Ahmed Elmohamady
Andy Carroll 0.9 - 0.9 Yannick Sagbo
Successful Dribbles per game
Mohamed Diamé 1.8 - 1.3 Sone Aluko
Mark Noble 1.1 - 1.2 Ahmed Elmohamady
Guy Demel 0.9 - 0.8 Robbie Brady
Stewart Downing 0.8 - 0.7 Nikica Jellavic
Matt Jarvis 0.6 - 0.7 Liam Rosenior
Tackles per game
Mark Noble 2.7 - 2.8 Liam Rosenior
Mohamed Diamé 2.3 - 2.6 Tom Huddlestone
Matthew Taylor 2.1 - 2.2 Maynor Figueroa
James Collins 1.9 - 2 Curtis Davies
Kevin Nolan 1.8 - 1.9 Jake Livermore
Aerial Duels Won per game
Andy Carroll 8 - 4.7 Curtis Davies
James Tomkins 4 - 3.7 Nikica Jelavic
James Collins 3.6 - 2.9 Shane Long
Carlton Cole 2.6 - 2.2 Paul McShane
Winston Reid 2.4 - 1.9 Alex Bruce
Manager
Sam Allardyce - Steve Bruce
40.9% Current Club Win % 44.9%
52 Won 40
32 Drawn 17
43 Lost 32
39.9% Managerial Career Win % 37.6%
346 Won 253
231 Drawn 167
290 Lost 252
7 Sides Managed 8
2 League Titles 0
0 Cup Wins 0
Preston North End First Managerial Role Sheffield United
30/09/1992 Start Date 02/07/1998
21y 176d Experience 15y 267d
